Wheat Prices Extend Losses – Trade War Escalation Pressures Markets

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📜 Wheat Prices Recover at CBOT – Euronext Continues Downtrend 📜

Wheat markets diverged on Tuesday, with Euronext wheat futures extending losses, while CBOT wheat prices rebounded after a week of declines. The May contract on Euronext fell by €2 to €223.50/t, hitting a six-month low. In contrast, CBOT May wheat gained 4.00 cents to 552.25 ct/bu (€202/t), as short covering and global trade uncertainties influenced market sentiment. Export competition remains strong, but the recent price dip may attract fresh demand for European wheat.

📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract 💰 Closing Price 📉 Change 📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025 €223.50/t -€2.00 -0.9%
Euronext September 2025 €223.75/t -€2.50 -1.1%
CBOT May 2025 552.25 ct/bu (€202/t) +4.00 ct +0.73%
CBOT July 2025 565.50 ct/bu (€207/t) +3.50 ct +0.62%

📌 CBOT wheat prices rebounded slightly, while Euronext futures hit new multi-month lows.

🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 CBOT Wheat Bounces Back on Short Covering

📊 After days of declines, U.S. wheat futures gained modest ground as:

  • Traders covered short positions following last week’s losses.
  • Speculation on potential demand recovery supported prices.

📌 The bounce is moderate but signals potential stabilization.

🔹 📉 Euronext Pressured by Strong Euro & Trade Tensions

📉 European wheat continues to struggle due to:

  • A stronger euro, which makes EU wheat less competitive globally.
  • Continued competition from Black Sea wheat, despite rising Russian export prices.

📌 Export demand needs to improve for Euronext to find stronger support.

🔹 🌎 Trade War Concerns Still Loom Over Market

📉 Trade tensions remain a significant headwind:

  • Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China took effect, raising concerns over retaliatory measures.
  • China imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat imports, though its impact is limited as China is not a major U.S. wheat buyer.
  • Mexico is expected to announce countermeasures this Sunday.

📌 The ongoing trade dispute continues to create uncertainty in global grain markets.

🔹 📦 EU & U.S. Export Trends

📉 EU soft wheat exports for 2024/25 reached 13.93 million tons by March 2, significantly below last year’s 22.04 million tons.

📦 USDA weekly export inspections (week ending February 27):

  • Total shipments: 389,593 tons, in line with expectations.
  • Up 0.5% from last week, +8.7% YoY.
  • Total U.S. wheat shipments this season stand at 15.323 million tons (+18.1% YoY).

📌 Exports are improving slightly, but remain weak compared to historical levels.

🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 7 – March 9, 2025)

📉 Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

📅 Contract 🔮 Price Forecast
Euronext May 2025 €220 – €225/t
Euronext September 2025 €221 – €226/t
CBOT May 2025 550 – 560 ct/bu (€200 – €205/t)

📌 If U.S. export data disappoints, further declines could follow. A strong euro continues to weigh on European wheat.

⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

📍 Current: Improved crop conditions, mild temperatures.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

  • ❄️ No major frost risks expected.
  • 🌡️ Some dryness concerns in parts of the Southern Plains.

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current: No significant frost damage reported.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

  • 🌡️ Temperatures expected to remain stable.
  • 🌧️ Below-average precipitation remains a concern for spring planting.

📌 Black Sea region weather remains neutral, offering no major price support.

📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

📅 Season 🌎 Global Stocks (Mio. t) 📉 Change
2021/22 311.5 –
2022/23 301.0 -10.5 Mio. t
2023/24 295.8 -5.2 Mio. t
2024/25 290.3 -5.5 Mio. t

📍 Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

🌍 Country 📅 2023/24 (Mio. t) 📅 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) 📉 Change
🇦🇺 Australia 29.0 34.1 +17.6 %
🇺🇸 USA 385 384 -0.3 %
🇷🇺 Russia 91 87 -4.4 %
🇪🇺 EU 126 128 +1.6 %

📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ CBOT wheat showed some recovery, but Euronext remains under pressure.
✅ Australian production estimates raised, increasing global supply pressure.
✅ EU and US wheat exports remain weak despite slight improvements.
✅ Black Sea wheat remains competitive despite rising prices.

📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Consider holding sales as the market may be oversold.
🔹 Buyers: Monitor Black Sea wheat prices, as rising costs could shift demand toward EU wheat.
🔹 Traders: Expect continued volatility, with geopolitical and trade developments driving price swings.

📍 Markets remain sensitive to U.S. export trends, global supply adjustments, and trade negotiations.

✔ This report follows the standardized format for commodity market reports. 🚜


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