📜 Wheat Prices Recover at CBOT – Euronext Continues Downtrend 📜
Wheat markets diverged on Tuesday, with Euronext wheat futures extending losses, while CBOT wheat prices rebounded after a week of declines. The May contract on Euronext fell by €2 to €223.50/t, hitting a six-month low. In contrast, CBOT May wheat gained 4.00 cents to 552.25 ct/bu (€202/t), as short covering and global trade uncertainties influenced market sentiment. Export competition remains strong, but the recent price dip may attract fresh demand for European wheat.
📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price | 📉 Change | 📊 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €223.50/t | -€2.00 | -0.9% |
| Euronext September 2025 | €223.75/t | -€2.50 | -1.1% |
| CBOT May 2025 | 552.25 ct/bu (€202/t) | +4.00 ct | +0.73% |
| CBOT July 2025 | 565.50 ct/bu (€207/t) | +3.50 ct | +0.62% |
📌 CBOT wheat prices rebounded slightly, while Euronext futures hit new multi-month lows.
🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 📈 CBOT Wheat Bounces Back on Short Covering
📊 After days of declines, U.S. wheat futures gained modest ground as:
- Traders covered short positions following last week’s losses.
- Speculation on potential demand recovery supported prices.
📌 The bounce is moderate but signals potential stabilization.
🔹 📉 Euronext Pressured by Strong Euro & Trade Tensions
📉 European wheat continues to struggle due to:
- A stronger euro, which makes EU wheat less competitive globally.
- Continued competition from Black Sea wheat, despite rising Russian export prices.
📌 Export demand needs to improve for Euronext to find stronger support.
🔹 🌎 Trade War Concerns Still Loom Over Market
📉 Trade tensions remain a significant headwind:
- Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China took effect, raising concerns over retaliatory measures.
- China imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat imports, though its impact is limited as China is not a major U.S. wheat buyer.
- Mexico is expected to announce countermeasures this Sunday.
📌 The ongoing trade dispute continues to create uncertainty in global grain markets.
🔹 📦 EU & U.S. Export Trends
📉 EU soft wheat exports for 2024/25 reached 13.93 million tons by March 2, significantly below last year’s 22.04 million tons.
📦 USDA weekly export inspections (week ending February 27):
- Total shipments: 389,593 tons, in line with expectations.
- Up 0.5% from last week, +8.7% YoY.
- Total U.S. wheat shipments this season stand at 15.323 million tons (+18.1% YoY).
📌 Exports are improving slightly, but remain weak compared to historical levels.
🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 7 – March 9, 2025)
📉 Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:
| 📅 Contract | 🔮 Price Forecast |
|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €220 – €225/t |
| Euronext September 2025 | €221 – €226/t |
| CBOT May 2025 | 550 – 560 ct/bu (€200 – €205/t) |
📌 If U.S. export data disappoints, further declines could follow. A strong euro continues to weigh on European wheat.
⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇺🇸 USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)
📍 Current: Improved crop conditions, mild temperatures.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):
- ❄️ No major frost risks expected.
- 🌡️ Some dryness concerns in parts of the Southern Plains.
🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Black Sea Region)
📍 Current: No significant frost damage reported.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures expected to remain stable.
- 🌧️ Below-average precipitation remains a concern for spring planting.
📌 Black Sea region weather remains neutral, offering no major price support.
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
📍 Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Stocks (Mio. t) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
📍 Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25
| 🌍 Country | 📅 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 📅 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 29.0 | 34.1 | +17.6 % |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 385 | 384 | -0.3 % |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 91 | 87 | -4.4 % |
| 🇪🇺 EU | 126 | 128 | +1.6 % |
📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ CBOT wheat showed some recovery, but Euronext remains under pressure.
✅ Australian production estimates raised, increasing global supply pressure.
✅ EU and US wheat exports remain weak despite slight improvements.
✅ Black Sea wheat remains competitive despite rising prices.
📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Consider holding sales as the market may be oversold.
🔹 Buyers: Monitor Black Sea wheat prices, as rising costs could shift demand toward EU wheat.
🔹 Traders: Expect continued volatility, with geopolitical and trade developments driving price swings.
📍 Markets remain sensitive to U.S. export trends, global supply adjustments, and trade negotiations.
✔ This report follows the standardized format for commodity market reports. 🚜