Sunflower Kernel Prices Decline

📊 Sunflower Kernel Prices Decline – Weak EU Demand Pressures Market

📉 Sunflower Kernels: Prices Drop – Weak EU Demand Pressures Market
📍 Prices for both hulled and unhulled sunflower kernels have declined. While FCA prices from Ukraine remain the lowest, demand in the EU, particularly from Germany, has significantly weakened. Changing consumer behavior is impacting bakery purchases, with cheaper alternatives being favored over sunflower-based products.

---

📊 2. Market Overview: SAFEX Sunflower Prices (ZAR/t)

Contract	Previous	Closing Price	Change	% Change	Traded Volume
Mar 25	8,992.00	8,900.00	-92.00	-1.03 %	38
Apr 25	9,000.00	8,960.00	-40.00	-0.45 %	0
May 25	8,982.00	8,920.00	-62.00	-0.70 %	180
Jul 25	9,198.00	9,169.00	-29.00	-0.32 %	1
Sep 25	9,328.00	9,328.00	0.00	0.00 %	0
Dec 25	9,577.00	9,577.00	0.00	0.00 %	0

📌 Analysis:

• March 25 contract down by -1.03%, the largest decline among contracts.
• May 25 loses -0.70%, while long-term contracts remain stable.
• Weak EU demand may lead to further downward pressure on prices.

---

🌍 3. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📦 Declining EU Prices for Hulled Sunflower Kernels

• FCA prices for hulled sunflower kernels drop to 1.10 EUR/kg.
• Demand in the EU, particularly in Germany, has declined sharply.
• Despite no fundamental changes in supply, consumer demand remains low.

🔹 🍞 Changing Consumer Behavior in the EU

• German consumers are shifting towards cheaper bakery products.
• Sunflower bread and rolls are seeing lower demand.
• This trend affects the entire seed market, not just sunflower kernels.

🔹 📉 Low Oil Yield and High Stock Levels Weigh on the Market

• Lower oil content requires higher raw material use for oil production.
• Stock levels for sunflower kernels continue to increase, as demand for hulled kernels and sunflower oil weakens.

🔹 🌍 Geopolitical Risks in Ukraine Remain a Concern

• Long border wait times increase logistics costs.
• Potential delivery disruptions remain a risk, leading to market volatility.

---

🔮 4. Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)

📉 Price Forecast for Hulled Sunflower Kernels:

• FCA Ukraine: 1.10 – 1.12 EUR/kg
• FCA Moldova: 1.12 – 1.14 EUR/kg
• FCA Bulgaria: 1.24 – 1.27 EUR/kg

📌 Forecast Factors:

• Weak demand may drive further price declines.
• Stock levels are increasing, while sales stagnate.
• Long-term market recovery depends on consumer behavior and weather conditions.

---

⛅ 5. 14-Day Weather Trend

🇺🇦 Ukraine:

• 🌡️ Temperatures between -1°C and +6°C, no frost risks.
• 🌧️ Light rainfall in the west, but drought persists in the east.

🇧🇬 Bulgaria:

• 🌡️ Temperatures between 5–12°C, stable storage conditions.
• 🌬️ No significant weather disruptions expected.

📌 Conclusion: No immediate weather-related market impact.

---

📉 6. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Ending Stocks (Million Tons)

Season	Ending Stocks	Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 million t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 million t
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 million t

📌 Analysis:

• Long-term stock declines continue, but short-term supply outweighs demand.
• Price pressure may persist in the coming months.

---

🔍 7. Conclusion & Recommendations

📌 Summary:

• Sunflower kernel prices (hulled & unhulled) continue to decline.
• Weak German demand is affecting the entire EU market.
• Consumer behavior is shifting – cheaper bakery products are preferred.

📌 Recommendations:
✔ Buyers: Further price declines are possible – no urgent need to buy now.
✔ Traders: FCA Ukraine remains the cheapest option, but logistics costs must be considered.
✔ Producers: Strategic stock management is key to navigating price volatility.

📌 Market Outlook:
📈 Further price declines likely, as EU demand remains weak.
⏳ Consumer behavior will be a key driver for future market trends.

---