🌽 Corn Market Faces Pressure Amid U.S. Export Surge & EU Trade Tensions 📉
Corn prices showed mixed movement, as U.S. export sales hit new highs, while trade policy tensions between the U.S. and EU add uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, speculative funds continue cutting their long positions, and Ukraine’s corn exports are declining. Will supply pressures continue to weigh on prices, or can exports provide support? Get the full breakdown in today’s market report! 🚀📊
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📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most-traded May contract dropped 3.00 ct to 458.00 ct/bu (-0.65%), pressured by speculative selling and global trade concerns.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract decreased by 1.00 EUR to 215.00 EUR/t, with market uncertainty limiting gains.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. Speculative Funds Reduce Long Positions in Corn
- CFTC data shows funds have cut their net-long position in corn by over 73,000 contracts as of March 11.
- Over the past two weeks, net-long positions were reduced by nearly 191,000 contracts, indicating a shift in sentiment.
- 📉 Market impact:
- Large-scale selling by funds adds downward pressure on prices.
- Uncertainty over demand keeps speculators cautious.
📌 2. U.S. Corn Exports to the EU Surge to Record Levels
- U.S. corn exports to the EU have skyrocketed, totalling 2.7 million tons so far in 2024/25 – more than 87 times the amount from the same period last year.
- The EU is now the fourth-largest buyer of U.S. corn, accounting for 9% of total U.S. exports.
- 📌 Key reasons for the surge:
- Lower Ukrainian corn production has made U.S. corn more competitive.
- Favourable exchange rates and high-quality U.S. corn compared to Brazilian alternatives.
📌 3. Trade Tensions Between the U.S. and EU Could Impact Future Exports
- The EU announced potential counter-tariffs on U.S. imports, including corn, as a response to the U.S. imposing 25% tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
- The current EU tariffs on U.S. corn, imposed in 2018 and 2020, are set to expire on April 1.
- 📌 Market impact:
- If the EU renews tariffs, U.S. corn exports could decline, shifting demand to other buyers.
- If the EU prioritizes Ukrainian imports, U.S. corn could struggle to maintain its current market share.
📌 4. Ukraine’s Corn Exports Declining
- Ukraine’s corn exports reached 15.839 million tons by March 17, marking an 11.13% decline YoY.
- 📌 Key reasons for the decline:
- Logistical challenges due to geopolitical risks.
- Competition from other origins, particularly the U.S.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 461.00 | 461.00 | 462.50 | 457.75 | 458.00 | -3.00 | -0.65% |
| Jul 25 | 470.00 | 469.75 | 471.50 | 466.75 | 467.00 | -3.00 | -0.64% |
| Sep 25 | 447.75 | 448.25 | 450.25 | 446.25 | 446.75 | -1.00 | -0.22% |
| Dec 25 | 454.00 | 454.75 | 457.00 | 453.25 | 453.50 | -0.50 | -0.11% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 215.00 | – | – | – | 215.00 | -1.00 | -0.47% |
| Aug 25 | 220.00 | – | – | – | 220.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 215.50 | – | – | – | 215.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔽 Bearish | Trade policy uncertainty, speculator liquidation |
| Euronext Corn | 🔄 Neutral | Euro strength, demand concerns |
| Ukraine & U.S. Exports | 🔼 Volatile | Tariff risks, shifting global demand |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Rainfall has improved soil moisture.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain is expected, supporting late-stage crops.
- 🌡 Drier conditions in the north could limit yield recovery.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: 92% of the Safrinha corn crop is planted.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain is slowing late-season planting, but early crops are benefiting from moisture.
- 🌤 Dry conditions in southern Brazil could limit yield potential.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 288.94 | -6.9 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 22.56 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 44.5 | -9.2% |
📊 Summary: Brazil continues to steady growth, while Argentina faces greater-than-expected yield reductions.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 Corn prices remain under pressure as speculative selling accelerates and trade policy tensions escalate.
🌎 U.S. exports are at record highs, but potential EU tariffs could reduce demand.
📉 Ukraine’s declining exports create market shifts, while weather remains a key factor.
🔍 Corn futures could remain volatile, with global trade developments and fund movements driving sentiment.
📢 Stay updated for further market insights! 🚀