Wheat Prices Fall to Multi-Month Lows – Black Sea Shipping Deal Weighs on Sentiment
Wheat futures continued their decline, with the Euronext front-month contract hitting its lowest level since November. Progress in Black Sea trade negotiations, improving weather, and cautious export trends kept pressure on the market. Will upcoming USDA data or a shift in weather sentiment trigger a reversal?
📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price | 📉 Change | 📊 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €220.25/t | -€2.00 | -0.9% |
| CBOT May 2025 | 542.50 ct/bu (€185.90/t) | -5.00 ct | -0.91% |
📌 The Euronext May contract reached its lowest close since late November 2024.
🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 📉 Progress on Black Sea Export Talks
📊 Russia and Ukraine agreed to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea, mirroring the previous grain corridor initiative:
- No attacks on ports or energy infrastructure
- Freight and insurance costs are likely to fall, improving the export competitiveness of Russian and Ukrainian wheat
📌 The market is pricing improved supply reliability from the Black Sea region.
🔹 📉 Wetter Conditions Improve Across Eastern Europe
📊 Rainfall expected in key wheat-producing regions:
- Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania all forecast above-normal precipitation
- Soil moisture expected to improve for spring planting
📌 Rain forecasts are easing weather-related risk premiums.
🔹 📉 SovEcon Cuts Russia’s 2024/25 Export Forecast
📊 New projections:
- 40.7 million tons (–1.5 million vs. prior estimate)
- Well below USDA’s 45 million t forecast and last year’s 55.5 million t
- 2025/26 forecast raised slightly to 39.1 million tons
📌 Despite the revision, the market shows little reaction – suggesting it was already priced in.
🔹 📉 EU Wheat Exports Improve Slightly – Still Below Average
📊 As of March 24, 2025:
- EU soft wheat exports: 15.46 million t (–35% YoY)
- +309,000 t from the previous week
- Germany: 1.84 million t (+90,000 t WoW)
📌 A mild rebound, but far below last year’s pace.
🔮 3. Price Forecast (March 26–28, 2025)
| 📅 Contract | 🔮 Expected Price Range |
|---|---|
| Euronext May 2025 | €218 – €222/t |
| CBOT May 2025 | 540 – 550 ct/bu (€184 – €188/t) |
📌 Markets may remain under pressure unless weather risks return or export activity surprises to the upside.
⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
🇷🇺 Russia, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇵🇱 Poland – Eastern Europe / Black Sea
📍 Current: Soil moisture is low but improving
📆 Outlook:
- 🌧️ Rain expected in all major growing regions
- 🌡️ Mild spring, no frost risks
🇺🇸 USA – Kansas, Great Plains (Winter Wheat)
📍 Current: Soil moisture remains uneven
📆 Outlook:
- 🌧️ Spotty rain, but not enough for full recovery
- 🌡️ Spring temperatures favourable for growth
📌 Weather risks are currently declining, reducing price support.
📉 5. Long-Term Supply Outlook (SovEcon & EU Commission)
| 📅 Season | 🌾 Russia Wheat Exports (Mio t) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 55.5 | – |
| 2024/25 (SovEcon) | 40.7 | –1.5 |
| 2025/26 (SovEcon) | 39.1 | +0.2 |
| 🌍 EU Soft Wheat Exports | 📅 Since July 1, 2024 | 📊 Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| EU Total | 15.46 million t | +309,000 t |
| Germany | 1.84 million t | +90,000 t |
📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Prices fell to multi-month lows on improving Black Sea logistics and weather forecasts
✅ Russia and Ukraine offer cheaper and now more reliable grain
✅ EU and U.S. exports show minor recovery but remain well below average
✅ Weather conditions now favour a stable spring planting season
📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Consider holding positions until after USDA’s March 31 reports
🔹 Buyers: Monitor Russian and Ukrainian logistics – short-term discounts possible
🔹 Traders: Be ready for sharp price moves if weather or diplomacy shifts
📍 Markets remain extremely sensitive to weather and geopolitical developments.