➡ Corn Prices Weaken Amid Tariff Tensions and Weather Uncertainty
Corn futures slipped as traders reacted to new U.S. import tariff announcements and volatile weather forecasts across the Midwest. Export expectations and ethanol data offered mixed support.
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After three days of gains, CBOT corn futures turned lower on Tuesday. New U.S. trade measures raised concerns, while weather conditions in key growing regions remain unstable. Euronext corn followed the bearish sentiment, closing modestly lower.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 457.75 | −4.00 |
| Jul 25 | 465.50 | −2.75 |
| Dec 25 | 447.50 | −2.00 |
➡ Profit-taking and uncertainty around trade weighed on sentiment.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 211.75 | −0.50 |
| Aug 25 | 214.75 | 0.00 |
| Nov 25 | 210.50 | 0.00 |
➡ Paris prices edged lower as Black Sea supply pressure and global concerns increased.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- ⚠️ New U.S. Import Tariffs:
Higher tariffs announced for most trade partners (excl. 🇨🇦 Canada & 🇲🇽 Mexico).- Impact muted by Mexico exemption – still the largest U.S. corn buyer
- 🌧 Midwest Weather Disruptions:
Severe rain, hail, and flooding across the Corn Belt could delay planting- USDA warns some farmers may shift to soybeans, which have a later window
- Higher soybean prices may accelerate the shift
- 🛢 EIA Ethanol Report (week ending Mar 28):
- Production: ↑ 10,000 bpd → 1.063 million bpd
- Stocks: ↓ 738,000 barrels → 26.612 million barrels
- Refinery Input: ↑ 898,000 bpd
- Exports: ↓ to 62,000 bpd, lowest since July 2023
- 📦 USDA Export Sales (due today):
- Expected: 0.8–1.6 million tons for 2024/25
- New crop: up to 100,000 tons
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Wet, storms, flooding | Fieldwork delays, possible shift to soy |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Mild & dry | Favourable for sowing |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Variable, drier in the south | Yield pressure remains |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | −0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 65.0 (est.) | +6.0 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 (approx.) | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 127.5 (adj.) |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 65.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- ⚠️ Tariff news introduces uncertainty – monitor responses from trade partners
- 🌧 Weather risks lend support to old crops, but field delays may shift acreage
- 📉 Ethanol demand stable, but weak exports temper outlook
🧭 Strategy:
Short-term bias remains mixed. Consider light long exposure in old crop futures, but be cautious on new crop until planting clarity improves.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 4–6)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔁 Sideways | Trade news & weather risks offset each other |
| Euronext | 🔽 Slightly weaker | Global macro pressure and weak momentum |
| Dalian | 🔁 Stable | Domestic demand is steady, with no major shifts |