📜 Wheat Futures Rise – Weather Risks and French Demand Support Prices 📜

Wheat prices advanced at the start of the week, with both Euronext and CBOT markets recovering further. Weather concerns in the U.S., a lower euro, and fresh demand interest from North Africa supported sentiment, while long-term fundamentals remain tight.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 % Change
Euronext May 2025	€224.75/t	+€2.75	+1.24%
CBOT May 2025	536.50 ct/bu (€183.00/t)	+7.50 ct	+1.42%

📌 Prices continued to recover from last week’s multi-month lows, supported by weather and technical buying.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 U.S. Weather Adds to Market Concerns

📊 The market responded to two key weather developments:

• 37% of winter wheat acreage is located in areas currently facing drought, up from 17% last year (USDA)
• Ongoing dryness in the southern Plains raises concern for winter wheat development
• Flooding in the Ohio River Valley and Mississippi Delta may have affected up to one-third of SRW fields (Commodity Weather Group)

📌 Weather risks added fresh momentum to futures after last week’s weak close.

🔹 📈 Crop Progress Report Offers Limited Relief

📊 USDA’s first 2025 Crop Progress Report (April 1) showed:

• Winter wheat rated 48% good/excellent, below 56% last year, but slightly better than analyst expectations (47%)
• Spring wheat planting at 3%, in line with last year and the 5-year average

📌 The report confirmed concerns about crop health but didn’t spark panic.

🔹 📈 Euro Weakness and Physical Market Demand Lifted Euronext

📊 A weaker euro and signs of export demand helped lift Euronext:

• North African buyers (e.g., Algeria, Morocco) seen returning to French wheat
• Expectations are growing that North Africa and the Middle East may re-enter the market after Ramadan

📌 French wheat is now competitive again versus Russian offers.

🔹 📉 USDA Export Report Shows Weaker Weekly Volume

📊 U.S. export inspections for the week ending April 3:

• 334,888 t shipped, down 33% vs. last week and 35% vs. last year
• FY total: 17.69 million t, still +15.1% YoY
• Top destinations: Mexico (76,161 t), Japan (60,797 t), Philippines (56,400 t)

📌 Weaker weekly data was largely shrugged off in favour of weather-driven trading.

🔹 📉 EU Export Momentum Still Weak

📊 EU wheat exports (as of March 30):

• 16.68 million t, down 36% vs. last year
• German exports: 1.89 million t (+50,000 t WoW)

📌 Despite fresh buying interest, the seasonal pace remains historically low.

🔹 📉 Russia’s 2025/26 Wheat Crop Outlook Lowered

📊 Argus Media revised its production estimate to 80.3 million t (from 81.5):

• Spring wheat acreage is falling, offsetting improved winter wheat conditions
• Russian farmers are switching to oilseeds and pulses

📌 Lower Russian output projections could help tighten the global balance later this year.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 9–11, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Price Range
Euronext May 2025	€222 – €227/t
CBOT May 2025	534 – 542 ct/bu (€182 – €185/t)

📌 Weather developments will drive short-term direction – especially in drought-affected U.S. regions.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Great Plains & Mississippi Valley

📍 Current: Mixed conditions
📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Dry conditions persist in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
• 🌊 Flooding in Ohio Valley continues to threaten SRW areas
• 🌡️ Temperatures trending warmer, aiding crop progress

🇪🇺 EU – France, Germany, Baltics

📍 Current: March was very dry across much of Northern Europe
📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ No significant rain is expected until April 9
• 🌡️ Warmer weather may accelerate drought stress in winter wheat

📌 Rainfall is needed soon to avoid further stress on EU winter crops.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights

🌍 Region	📉 Weekly Export Volume	📊 FY Export Total
USA	334,888 t (–33% WoW)	17.69 Mt (+15.1% YoY)
EU	16.68 Mt (–36% YoY)	–
Germany	1.89 Mt	+50,000 t WoW

🌾 Crop Health (USA)	📊 Value
Winter wheat G/E rating	48% (vs. 56% LY)
Spring wheat planted	3% (in line with average)

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Prices rebounded as drought concerns and weak acreage fueled short-covering✅ EU wheat found support from the physical market and weaker euro
✅ USDA export data was weak, but not a major market mover
✅ Russian crop outlook lowered, but not yet priced in

📌 Strategic Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Monitor crop health – potential for upside in weather-driven markets
🔹 Buyers: Use current prices to secure nearby coverage – monitor North African tenders
🔹 Traders: Volatility will remain high as weather and fund positioning dominate

📍 The wheat market remains tightly balanced – weather, export interest, and fund flows will shape April.