Corn Futures Surge for Second Week – WASDE Stocks Cut and Weak USD Boost Buying
U.S. corn futures continued their upward trend, closing the second consecutive week in positive territory. Traders reacted to tighter domestic supply estimates, favourable currency trends, and improving sentiment.
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Corn prices in Chicago posted strong gains again on Friday, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. ending stocks and a weaker dollar. Despite trade uncertainty, global grain markets saw investor interest return. In Europe, Paris contracts partially recovered, but still ended the week with modest losses after the tariff-related drop.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Delivery | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 490.25 | +7.25 | +30.00 ct (+6.5%) |
| Jul 2025 | 495.00 | +6.25 | – |
| Dec 2025 | 462.00 | +6.00 | – |
➡ Second weekly gain was driven by WASDE cut and planting delays.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Delivery | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | 208.75 | +0.75 | −1.50 EUR (−0.7%) |
| Aug 2025 | 210.50 | 0.00 | – |
| Nov 2025 | 207.50 | 0.00 | – |
➡ Slight Friday recovery but weekly performance remains negative.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 📉 WASDE (April) – U.S. Ending Stocks Cut:
- Reduced to 1.47 billion bu from 1.54 billion bu (March)
- Below analyst expectations (avg. 1.51 billion bu)
- Lower stocks due to higher exports, despite reduced domestic use
- 💵 Weak USD Supports Export Demand:
- A softer dollar increased U.S. competitiveness
- Contributed to bullish investor sentiment
- 📊 CFTC Positioning (as of April 9):
- Net-long: 53,576 contracts (−3,181 WoW)
- Estimates suggest funds increased positions post-WASDE (Wed–Fri)
- 🇫🇷 France Planting Progress (FranceAgriMer):
- Corn planting at 15%, up from 2% last week
- Well ahead of last year (3%) and 5-year average (7%)
- Dry weather accelerating progress
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Wet in Midwest | Planting delays → price support |
| 🇫🇷 France | Dry and warm | Accelerated planting |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Stable in most regions | Crop stress decreases slightly |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks – WASDE Update
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | Change vs. Mar | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | — | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | — | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 124.75 | ↑ +1.98 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 48.5–49.0 | ↑ +4 Mt | — |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 59.31 | ↑ +1.31 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,215.10 | ↑ +0.93 Mt | 287.65 Mt (−0.71 Mt) |
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 124.75 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 59.31 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 📈 Strong momentum in U.S. corn on bullish WASDE and macro factors
- ⚖️ EU underperforms but may rebound as tariff discussions evolve
- 📉 CFTC reduction temporary – expect fund re-entry in the new week
🧭 Strategy:
- Maintain long bias in nearby CBOT contracts
- Watch for consolidation midweek after a strong rally
- Use dips for positioning ahead of May supply outlook
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 15–17)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔼 Bullish bias | Supported by tight balance & macro backdrop |
| Euronext | 🔁 Neutral to firm | Stabilizing after tariff-driven drop |
| Dalian | 🔁 Stable | No major change in domestic demand expected |
Related posts:
Corn Market Dynamics: Ethanol Expansion Fuels Demand Amidst Pricing Challenges
U.S. Corn Futures Soar on Lower Ending Stocks – EU Prices Fall After Tariff Pause
Corn Near-Term Futures Rally on Delayed Planting – EU Imports from U.S. Rise Sharply
Corn Prices Rebound – Trade Optimism and EU Tensions Support Market
Corn Ends Week Mixed – Nearby Contracts Supported, New Crop Pressured by Acreage Outlook