Corn Prices Fall for Fourth Day – U.S. Weather and South American Yields Pressure Market

➡ Corn Prices Fall for Fourth Day – U.S. Weather and South American Yields Pressure Market

U.S. corn futures continued downward on Tuesday, closing lower for a fourth straight session. Drier planting forecasts and improved crop outlooks in South America weighed on prices.

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After holding steady early in the week, CBOT corn extended losses on Tuesday as weather models indicated favourable planting conditions in the U.S. Midwest. Meanwhile, updates from Argentina and Brazil raised global supply expectations. Euronext prices also declined, with early deliveries leading the downturn.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	483.25	−6.75
Sep 2025	450.00	−3.50
Dec 2025	458.00	−3.25

➡ July futures fell to a two-week low, pressured by planting optimism.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	203.50	−1.75
Aug 2025	207.00	−2.00
Nov 2025	203.75	−2.00

➡ Prices weakened across maturities, tracking the U.S. market lower.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌦 Favourable U.S. Planting Weather Ahead:
  • New 16–30 day outlook from Commodity Weather Group shows below-average rainfall in the Midwest
  • Potential for accelerated planting pace in late April
• 📊 Crop Progress (as of April 20):
  • 12% of U.S. corn planted (vs. 10% 5-year avg.)
  • Iowa: 18% (avg. 7%), Nebraska: 8% (avg. 5%)
  • Many states are still below average due to early delays
• 🇧🇷🇦🇷 Improved South American Outlooks:
  • Analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier revised estimates:
    • Brazil: ↑ +3 Mt → 125 Mt
    • Argentina: ↑ +2 Mt → 48 Mt
  • Favourable harvest conditions and positive yield reports from Argentina

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Drier, mild	Boosts planting pace – bearish short term
🇧🇷 Brazil	Steady conditions	Forecasts confirm revised yields
🇦🇷 Argentina	Excellent harvest	Supplies likely exceed expectations

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Updated)

Indicator	Value	Trend
U.S. Ending Stocks (24/25)	1.47 billion bu	Supportive
Export Inspections (latest week)	1.702 million t	Strong (↑29% YoY)
CFTC Net Long (Apr 15)	124,573 contracts	Bullish but overbought risk
Brazil Crop Forecast	125 Mt	Raised by +3 Mt
Argentina Crop Forecast	48 Mt	Raised by +2 Mt

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🔻 Short-term correction after overbought fund positioning
• 🌤 Planting-friendly weather adds bearish pressure
• 🧭 South American crops are improving → downside risk grows

Strategy:
Consider defensive positioning until fresh bullish signals emerge. Watch for a potential bounce if planting gets delayed again or export data beats expectations.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 24–26)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔽 Bearish bias	Strong planting pace, improved S.A. outlook
Euronext	🔽 Weak bias	Follows U.S. correction and euro strength
Dalian	🔁 Stable	No major change in domestic demand

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