📉 Global Sugar Market Faces Volatility Amid Production Declines and Discrepancies in Consumption Forecasts

The global sugar market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations due to a notable decrease in production from major producers like India, coupled with conflicting consumption data from leading organizations. As the sugarcane crushing season in India nears its end, production figures have sharply declined, particularly in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, leading to a substantial drop in national output. This report delves into the latest market trends, price movements, and fundamental drivers affecting the sugar market, providing a comprehensive analysis for traders and stakeholders.

📊 Market Overview: Current Prices and Trends

Product	Location	Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Change (%)
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45	Mirijampole, LT	0.53	0.54	-1.85%
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 32	Norfolk, GB	0.55	0.55	0.00%
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45	Vinnytsia Oblast, UA	0.59	0.59	0.00%

📈 Key Market Drivers

• Significant production decline in India, with Maharashtra seeing a 27% drop.
• Discrepancies in consumption forecasts between ISMA, NFCSF, and AISTA, varying by up to 10 lakh tonnes.
• End-of-season dynamics as sugarcane crushing concludes, impacting supply levels.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Impact on Harvest

Current weather conditions in key sugarcane producing regions like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are marked by intense heat, which is expected to reduce the sugar recovery rate from the remaining crops. This could further strain the already reduced production levels.

🔮 Price Forecast: Next 3 Days

Given the tight supply and uncertain consumption data, sugar prices are expected to show increased volatility. Here’s a detailed forecast:

Date	Expected Price Range (€/kg)
2025-04-30	0.52 – 0.54
2025-05-01	0.51 – 0.53
2025-05-02	0.50 – 0.52