Soya Market Analysis: Sustainability, Supply Shifts, and Price Trends Shape 2025 Outlook

The global soya market is experiencing a dynamic phase, driven by shifting supply chains, evolving consumer preferences, and intensifying competition between major exporters. At the recent SUSTAINASUMMIT in Sri Lanka, the US soy industry emphasized its commitment to sustainability, leveraging its lower carbon footprint and robust certification protocols to appeal to increasingly eco-conscious buyers. This push comes as Brazil surpasses the US in production, albeit with mounting environmental scrutiny due to Amazon deforestation. Meanwhile, demand in South Asia continues to rise, with India emerging as a top consumer of soy oil and a focal point for US export efforts.

Simultaneously, weather patterns and crop conditions in key producing regions like the US Midwest and Brazil are under close watch, with any adverse developments likely to impact global supply and pricing. Current market prices reflect a cautious optimism, as traders weigh the prospects of sustainable sourcing premiums and the potential for biofuel expansion. With GenZ consumers and major food companies prioritizing sustainability, the market is poised for further transformation. In this report, we break down the latest price movements, supply and demand fundamentals, weather risks, and strategic recommendations for market participants navigating the evolving soya landscape.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
China	Yellow, Organic	Beijing	99.8%	Yes	FOB	0.65	0.67	2025-05-14	Softening
China	Yellow	Beijing	99.5%	No	FOB	0.58	0.60	2025-05-14	Softening
USA	No. 2	Washington D.C.	–	No	FOB	0.34	0.34	2025-05-07	Stable
India	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	–	No	FOB	0.73	0.73	2025-05-07	Stable
Ukraine	–	Odesa	–	No	FOB	0.36	0.36	2025-05-07	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US Soya: The US is leveraging sustainable production practices and certifications (SSAP) to boost exports, targeting South Asia and emphasizing health and environmental benefits.
• Brazil: Now the world’s largest producer, but facing criticism for environmental impacts, especially Amazon deforestation.
• India: Third-largest consumer of soybean oil, with rising demand in food, feed, and biofuel sectors. Potential for increased UCO (used cooking oil) collection for biofuel.
• Global Trends: Sustainability and traceability are increasingly valued by buyers, with GenZ and corporate procurement prioritizing responsible sourcing.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: US soybean acreage for 2025 is projected slightly lower than 2024, but yields are expected to remain strong barring weather disruptions.
• Inventories: Global stocks are adequate, but Brazil’s logistical and environmental issues may affect export reliability.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains cautiously long, reflecting expectations of robust demand and weather-related risks.
• Protein Content: US soybeans maintain a premium for higher protein, supporting feed and food applications.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Near-term forecasts indicate moderate temperatures with scattered showers, supporting crop emergence and early vegetative growth. No major drought threats currently, but watch for June rainfall patterns.
• Brazil: Harvest completed, but ongoing dryness in the Cerrado region could impact next season’s planting.
• India: Pre-monsoon rains have been timely, supporting sowing intentions. Monsoon progression will be critical for yield potential.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (MMT)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (MMT)	Key Notes
Brazil	154	31	Largest producer, export disruptions possible
USA	119	8	Focus on sustainability, steady yields
Argentina	50	5	Recovering from drought, improved output
India	12	1	Strong domestic demand
China	20	27	Major importer, rising domestic output

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor US weather developments closely—June rainfall is critical for yield formation.
• Premiums for certified sustainable soybeans are likely to widen as global buyers prioritize ESG criteria.
• Watch for logistical disruptions in Brazil and potential policy shifts regarding deforestation and exports.
• India’s demand for soy oil and protein meal remains robust; opportunities exist for exporters with traceable, high-protein product.
• Consider short-term hedges if holding inventory, as prices are softening in China but stable elsewhere.
• Biofuel policy developments, especially in India and the EU, could create new demand spikes.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT (US No. 2)	0.34	0.33 – 0.35	Stable/Sideways
China (Yellow, Organic)	0.65	0.64 – 0.66	Slight Downside
India (Sortex Clean)	0.73	0.73 – 0.74	Stable
Ukraine (Odesa)	0.36	0.36	Stable