Lentils Market Analysis May 2025: Exports Slide as Indian Demand Weakens, Prices Steady

The global lentils market is experiencing significant shifts in trade flows and demand dynamics as we move through May 2025. Canadian lentil exports, a key barometer for global supply, have seen a sharp downturn in March compared to February, primarily due to a notable drop in Indian demand. India, traditionally the largest importer of Canadian lentils, has slipped out of the top three buyer countries this season. This is attributed to improved domestic supply in India and persistently soft prices, reducing the incentive for importers to source from Canada. As a result, Canadian lentil exports plummeted from 218,978 tonnes in February to just 81,226 tonnes in March. The United Arab Emirates, the US, and Colombia have emerged as the leading alternative destinations for Canadian lentils in March. Despite these short-term disruptions, cumulative Canadian lentil exports for the first eight months of the marketing season are up significantly year-on-year, highlighting the market’s resilience and the shifting landscape of global demand. Meanwhile, prices for key lentil varieties remain steady, reflecting a balance between ample supply and subdued international buying interest. Weather conditions in major growing regions and the evolving trade policies in India—especially concerning duty-free imports—remain crucial factors for the market outlook in the coming months.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Lentils dried	Small, Green	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	FOB	1.43	1.44	2025-05-14	Stable/Soft
Lentils dried	Small, Green	CN	Beijing	99.5%	No	FOB	1.30	1.31	2025-05-14	Stable/Soft
Lentils dried	Red Football	CA	Ottawa	–	No	FOB	2.47	2.47	2025-05-08	Stable
Lentils dried	Laird, Green	CA	Ottawa	–	No	FOB	1.63	1.63	2025-05-08	Stable
Lentils dried	Eston Green	CA	Ottawa	–	No	FOB	1.50	1.50	2025-05-08	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Canadian Lentil Exports: Fell sharply in March 2025 (81,226 tonnes) vs. February (218,978 tonnes), mainly due to weak Indian demand.
• India’s Role: India, typically the top buyer, dropped out of the top three importers in March due to better domestic supply and soft prices.
• Alternative Buyers: UAE (16,089 tonnes), USA (10,634 tonnes), and Colombia (10,634 tonnes) became the main importers from Canada in March.
• Cumulative Season Exports: Canadian lentil exports for the first 8 months of the 2024/25 season reached 1,520,958 tonnes (up from 1,193,393 tonnes in 2023/24).
• Peas & Kabuli Gram: Pea exports also declined, and Kabuli gram exports rose, but India remains absent as a significant buyer.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Inventories: Higher carryover stocks in India and improved local harvests are dampening import needs.
• Speculative Positioning: Traders remain cautious, with limited forward buying due to uncertain Indian import policy and softening prices.
• Trade Policy: Duty-free import of yellow peas continues in India, but with little impact on Canadian shipments.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Canada: Weather has been broadly favorable for seeding and early crop development in the Prairies, supporting potential for a good harvest if conditions persist.
• India: Monsoon outlook is positive, likely supporting another strong pulse harvest and further reducing import requirements.
• Other Regions: No major adverse weather events reported in other key lentil producing/exporting countries.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production Estimate (tonnes)	2024/25 Export Estimate (tonnes)	Stock Situation
Canada	~2,500,000	1,520,958 (to Mar)	Comfortable, but declining exports
India	~1,300,000	Minor	High, due to good harvests
Australia	~500,000	Major exporter	Stable
Turkey	~350,000	Minor exporter	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Indian import policy closely—any change could rapidly shift export demand and prices.
• Expect continued soft-to-stable prices in the short term due to ample supplies and weak Indian demand.
• Watch Canadian weather for signs of stress—any adverse development could support new-crop prices.
• Consider forward contracting only on price dips or if Indian demand signals improve.
• Importers: Diversify sourcing beyond Canada, especially as Indian and UAE buying patterns shift.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Product/Type	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast (USD/kg)	Trend
Beijing, CN	Small Green (Organic)	1.43	1.42 – 1.44	Stable
Beijing, CN	Small Green (Conventional)	1.30	1.29 – 1.31	Stable
Ottawa, CA	Red Football	2.47	2.47	Stable
Ottawa, CA	Laird Green	1.63	1.62 – 1.64	Stable
Ottawa, CA	Eston Green	1.50	1.50	Stable