Rice Market Update: Policy Shifts, Stable Prices, and Export Dynamics

The global rice market is entering a phase of regulatory transformation, particularly in India, one of the world’s top exporters. The Indian government’s proposed mandate to register all non-Basmati rice export contracts with APEDA—mirroring the Basmati system—signals a drive for greater traceability and quality control. This move, alongside potential fee increases for Basmati rice contract registration, aims to bolster export promotion, fund new testing facilities, and strengthen the sector’s global reputation. For exporters, these changes may introduce short-term administrative and cost pressures, but could ultimately enhance market access, especially to the EU and UK, where stringent standards and traceability are prerequisites. Meanwhile, rice prices across major Asian origins remain stable, with Vietnamese and Indian offers unchanged week-on-week. The market is closely watching weather developments in key producing regions, as the onset of the monsoon in South Asia and the tail end of the dry season in Southeast Asia will shape crop prospects and export availability. With the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme likely to continue past 2025, Indian rice exporters can expect ongoing government support. These evolving fundamentals, combined with steady demand from Africa and the Middle East, set the stage for a cautiously optimistic outlook—though vigilance is warranted as new policies roll out and weather risks persist.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (USD/tonne)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Vietnam	Red	Hanoi	FOB	0.89	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Paper dried	Hanoi	FOB	1.97	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Long, white, 5%	Hanoi	FOB	0.60	0.00	Stable
India	White, non-Basmati (organic)	New Delhi	FOB	1.63	0.00	Stable
India	White, Basmati (organic)	New Delhi	FOB	1.94	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s Policy Shift: Mandatory export contract registration for non-Basmati rice is expected to improve traceability and align with global standards, potentially reducing EU/UK rejections.
• Export Fees: Proposed increases in registration fees for Basmati and non-Basmati rice could marginally raise export costs but will fund new testing and seed processing infrastructure.
• RoDTEP Extension: The likely extension of the RoDTEP scheme will continue to support Indian rice exporters by offsetting duties and taxes.
• Demand Outlook: Strong demand from Africa, the Middle East, and Asia continues to underpin the market, with no major disruptions reported.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Stocks

• Production: India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan remain the top exporters. India’s 2024/25 rice crop is projected at normal levels, though weather risks remain.
• Inventories: Global rice stocks are comfortable but slightly lower year-on-year due to strong demand and steady exports.
• Speculative Positioning: No significant speculative build-up; market remains driven by physical fundamentals.

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Exports (mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt)
India	130	22	32
Vietnam	43	7.2	4.5
Thailand	32	8	5.2
Pakistan	9.5	4.5	1.6
China	148	2.3	106

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Monsoon onset is on schedule, with above-average rainfall forecast for eastern and southern states. This bodes well for Kharif planting, though localized flooding risk exists.
• Vietnam & Thailand: End of dry season, with scattered showers improving soil moisture. No major weather threats reported; planting conditions are favorable.
• Pakistan: Irrigation supplies are adequate, and temperatures are within seasonal norms.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Indian policy implementation—exporters should prepare for new registration requirements and potential delays in non-Basmati shipments.
• Buyers may consider forward purchases to hedge against possible administrative slowdowns or fee hikes in India.
• Watch weather developments in South and Southeast Asia; any monsoon disruptions could tighten supplies and lift prices.
• Stable prices in Vietnam and India provide short-term buying opportunities, especially for standard grades.
• EU/UK buyers should ensure compliance with new traceability and inspection requirements.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Current Price (USD/tonne)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Vietnam	Long, white, 5%	0.60	0.60 – 0.61	Stable to slightly firm
India	White, non-Basmati (organic)	1.63	1.63	Stable
India	White, Basmati (organic)	1.94	1.94	Stable