The global soybean market is entering a phase of heightened volatility and cautious optimism as the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) highlight a tightening supply dynamic for the 2025/26 season. Producers and traders alike are watching closely as demand continues to outpace supply, leading to the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years despite a stable production outlook. The U.S. crop is projected at 4.34 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from last year, but with increased exports and higher domestic crush, supplies are expected to fall by nearly 15% compared to 2024/25. This tightening is already reflected in firmer prices, with the USDA forecasting a season-average soybean price of $10.25 per bushel for 2025/26, up from $9.95 in the prior year. Globally, South American exporters are set to expand their market share, while China’s import appetite remains robust, projected at a record 112 million tons. Weather developments in key growing regions and shifting trade flows will be crucial in determining the market’s next moves. Overall, the outlook is one of cautious bullishness, with upside risks if weather or logistics disrupt expected supply flows.
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Purity | Organic | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yellow, organic | 99.8% | Yes | Beijing | FOB | 0.67 | 0.65 | +3.1% | Bullish |
| China | Yellow | 99.5% | No | Beijing | FOB | 0.59 | 0.58 | +1.7% | Firm |
| USA | No. 2 | – | No | Washington D.C. | FOB | 0.33 | 0.34 | -2.9% | Neutral |
| India | Sortex clean | – | No | New Delhi | FOB | 0.71 | 0.73 | -2.7% | Soft |
| Ukraine | – | – | No | Odesa | FOB | 0.37 | 0.36 | +2.8% | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- USDA May WASDE: U.S. 2025/26 ending stocks projected at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from 2024/25.
- Production: U.S. crop at 4.34 billion bushels, stable year-on-year; higher yield offsets reduced acreage.
- Exports: U.S. exports up, but South America (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) to increase exports by 8.5 million tons, offsetting U.S. share.
- Global Imports: China’s imports at record 112 million tons (+4 million YoY). Increases also seen for Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, Algeria.
- Global Ending Stocks: Up 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million, driven by South American surpluses, partly offsetting U.S. drawdown.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Price Forecast: $10.25/bu (2025/26), up from $9.95/bu (2024/25).
- Soybean Meal: $310/short ton (2025/26), up $10 YoY.
- Soybean Oil: $0.46/lb, up $0.01 YoY.
- Speculative Positioning: Funds have recently increased net long positions, reflecting bullish sentiment on tightening stocks.
- Inventory Trends: Lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years; global stocks up due to South American surpluses.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- US Midwest: Current forecasts indicate above-average rainfall in key soybean states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) over the next 10 days, supporting early crop development but increasing risk of planting delays in some areas.
- Brazil: Southern Brazil remains drier than normal, but most major producing states report adequate soil moisture.
- Argentina: Slightly above-average temperatures and scattered showers expected, which should be neutral to positive for late-planted beans.
- Short-term Risk: Any shift to excessive wetness in the U.S. or renewed drought in South America could quickly tighten the market further.
🌍 Global Production & Stocks
| Country/Region | 2025/26 Production (mln tons) | 2025/26 Ending Stocks (mln tons) | 2025/26 Exports (mln tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 118.1 | 8.0 | 53.3 |
| Brazil | 163.0 | 37.0 | 100.0 |
| Argentina | 51.0 | 17.0 | 8.0 |
| China (Imports) | 18.0 | 20.0 | – |
| World | 410.0 | 124.3 | 188.4 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor U.S. and South American weather closely—any adverse developments could trigger sharp rallies.
- Expect firm to bullish price action in the near term, especially if U.S. planting delays intensify.
- End users should consider forward coverage for Q3-Q4 2025 to hedge against further tightening.
- Producers may look to scale up sales on rallies above $10.50/bu CBOT.
- Watch Chinese import trends and South American export logistics for potential supply shocks.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast (3 days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT (US No. 2) | 0.33 | 0.33 – 0.35 | Stable to Firm |
| Euronext (EU) | 0.41* | 0.41 – 0.43 | Firm |
| China (Beijing, Organic) | 0.67 | 0.67 – 0.69 | Bullish |
| India (New Delhi) | 0.71 | 0.70 – 0.72 | Soft |
*Estimate based on regional price trends.
