Crude Oil Rebounds Slightly – Focus Shifts to U.S. Inventories and OPEC Outlook
After a week of mixed trading, crude oil prices stabilised on Tuesday as investors awaited fresh U.S. inventory data and new signals from OPEC regarding potential output adjustments.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) June 2025 futures on the NYMEX closed at $62.56/barrel, up $0.13 (+0.21%) on the day. Other contracts through early 2026 followed the upward trend modestly.
| Contract | Price (USD/bl) | Daily Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 62.56 | +0.13 | ➡️ |
| Jul 25 | 62.27 | +0.13 | ➡️ |
| Aug 25 | 61.62 | +0.13 | ➡️ |
| Sep 25 | 61.04 | +0.15 | ⬆️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- U.S. Inventory Report Due Today
API and EIA inventory reports will provide the next key data point. Last week saw a surprise build in crude stocks, which pressured prices. A drawdown could provide short-term support. - OPEC+ Policy Remains in Focus
Traders are monitoring signals for the upcoming June OPEC+ meeting. Talks of rolling over voluntary cuts continue, especially amid concerns about weak demand in Asia. - Macroeconomic Sentiment Mixed
Global inflation concerns persist, but renewed optimism about global shipping stability and China’s recovery may lend support to oil. - Geopolitical Calm
Reduced tensions in the Red Sea and de-escalation efforts in the Middle East have limited geopolitical risk premiums for now.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Crude remains in a technical holding pattern between $60 and $63. A breakout will likely require a surprise in inventory figures or an unexpected OPEC announcement.
Strategy:
– Range trade between $61.00 and $63.50
– Watch for the EIA stock report this afternoon (U.S. time)
– Short-term upside is limited without stronger physical signals
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (WTI Jun 25)
| Date | Expected Range (USD/bl) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 22 | 61.90–62.90 | ➡️ Sideways |
| May 23 | 61.70–63.00 | ⬆️ Inventory-led |
| May 24 | 61.00–63.50 | ➡️ OPEC-sensitive |