Chickpeas Market Analysis: Tight Supply, Pea Imports Pressure, and Seasonal Shifts

The global chickpeas market is currently navigating a period of subdued activity, marked by tight supply and a cautious demand outlook. Prices in Delhi, a key benchmark, have hovered within a narrow range of $69–$71.40 per quintal over the past month, reflecting a lack of active buying interest and a significant reduction in arrivals—down by about 50% compared to peak season. Despite this stagnation, market sentiment remains tentatively positive as long as prices stay above $68.40 per quintal, a level highlighted by analysts as critical for maintaining an upward trend. The arrival of large pea imports, especially a 50,000-tonne shipment from Russia and more vessels expected before the end of May, has added fresh pressure on chickpea demand. With duty-free importation of peas permitted until at least May 31, and consumers increasingly turning to pea-based flour, chickpea consumption faces a structural challenge. However, NAFED’s procurement of 200,000 tonnes at the minimum support price and the anticipation of increased demand during upcoming festivals in June and July could provide a floor for prices and possibly support a moderate rebound. Weather conditions and the extension of pea import duty waivers remain crucial watchpoints for the near-term outlook.

📈 Prices

Origin	Count/Size	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/MT)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mexico	42-44, 12 mm	Mexico City	FOB	1.84	1.83	+0.01	Stable/Firm
Mexico	75-80, 8 mm	Mexico City	FOB	1.36	1.35	+0.01	Stable
India	42-44, 12 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.50	1.49	+0.01	Stable
India	44-46, 11 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.49	1.48	+0.01	Stable
India	46-48, 10 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.48	1.47	+0.01	Stable
India	58-60, 9 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.43	1.42	+0.01	Stable
India	60-62, 8 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.42	1.41	+0.01	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals at major Indian centers are down by ~50% versus seasonal peaks, tightening local supply.
• NAFED has procured 200,000 tonnes for buffer stocks at MSP, supporting the market floor.
• Demand is weak as buyers struggle to source from mills and sellers hold limited stocks.
• Large-scale pea imports (50,000 tonnes from Russia arriving May 21, with more on the way) are actively displacing chickpea demand, especially with duty-free status until at least May 31.
• Consumer shift toward pea-based flour, reinforced by 18 months of heavy pea imports, continues to erode chickpea consumption.
• Upcoming festival season (June–July) expected to temporarily boost demand.

📊 Fundamentals

• Delhi spot prices stable above $68.40/quintal, supporting a positive trend.
• Price volatility is low (only $2.40 swing in the last month).
• Market sentiment briefly lifted by India-Pakistan tensions, but faded quickly with ceasefire.
• Government policy on pea import duties and NAFED procurement are key stabilizing factors.
• Speculative activity is muted due to lack of active demand and tight arrivals.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Indian chickpea-growing regions (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra) are experiencing normal pre-monsoon conditions. No major weather threats reported as of mid-May.
• Forecasts indicate timely monsoon onset, which should support soil moisture for late-harvested pulses but has limited near-term impact on current stocks.
• Weather in Russia and other major pea exporters remains favorable, supporting continued strong pea shipments.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Production Estimate (MMT)	2024/25 Stocks (MMT)	Trend
India	11.0	2.1	Stable
Australia	1.0	0.3	Down
Russia	0.6	0.15	Up (Peas)
Mexico	0.2	0.05	Stable
EU	0.2	0.05	Stable

• India remains the dominant producer and consumer, but increased pea imports are reshaping the pulse market landscape.
• Australia and Russia are key exporters, with Russia’s pea exports currently impacting global chickpea demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Maintain a cautiously bullish stance as long as Delhi prices hold above $68.40/quintal.
• 📌 Watch for further announcements on pea import duty extension; a continuation could cap chickpea price gains.
• 📌 Monitor festival-driven demand in June–July, which may offer short-term price support.
• 📌 Producers should consider forward sales on any price rallies above $71.50/quintal, as substitution risk from peas remains high.
• 📌 Importers may find value in Indian and Mexican chickpeas at current FOB levels, but should hedge against further downside if pea imports continue unchecked.
• 📌 Keep abreast of weather updates for both Indian and Russian pulse regions for any late-season supply disruptions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (USD/MT)	3-Day Forecast	Direction
Delhi (India, 12mm)	1.50	1.49–1.52	Stable to Slightly Up
Mexico City (MX, 12mm)	1.84	1.83–1.85	Stable
Mexico City (MX, 8mm)	1.36	1.35–1.37	Stable

Short-term market direction is expected to remain steady, with a slight upward bias possible in India if festival demand materializes and no further pea import extensions are announced.