The cumin market is currently navigating a period of limited price volatility, as both supply and demand remain subdued in key Indian producing states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan. Despite a notable uptick in arrivals at the Unjha benchmark market—recently doubling from 7,000–8,000 to 15,000–16,000 bags per day—prices have held firm. This resilience is largely due to persistent buying from Disawari traders, exporters, and some renewed interest from importers in Bangladesh. With Indian cumin trading at competitive global prices and the next harvests in Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan not expected until June or July, India enjoys a short-term window to capture export market share. However, the much-anticipated surge in Chinese demand has yet to materialize, keeping overall demand below typical seasonal levels. On the supply side, the total sowing area for cumin has decreased in the 2024–25 season following last year’s historic price spike and subsequent normalization, pointing to a smaller crop and tighter availability. Market participants should expect range-bound price action with mild daily fluctuations, and closely monitor export trends and weather conditions in both Indian and competing origins for directional cues.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cumin powder
grade - A
FOB 4.60 €/kg
(from IN)
Cumin seeds
whole, grade - A
FOB 5.34 €/kg
(from IN)
Cumin seeds
grade - A
98%
FOB 2.45 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Purity | Current Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Update Date | Change (%) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin powder, grade – A, organic | IN | New Delhi | – | 4.61 | 4.59 | 2025-05-17 | +0.44 | Stable/Firm |
| Cumin seeds, whole, grade – A, organic | IN | New Delhi | – | 5.34 | 5.28 | 2025-05-17 | +1.14 | Firm |
| Cumin seeds, grade – A, 98% purity | IN | New Delhi | 98% | 2.45 | 2.42 | 2025-05-17 | +1.24 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, grade – A, 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | 99% | 2.60 | 2.57 | 2025-05-17 | +1.17 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | 99% | 2.60 | 2.58 | 2025-05-17 | +0.78 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, 98% purity | IN | Unjha | 98% | 2.54 | 2.52 | 2025-05-17 | +0.79 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, 99.9% purity | EG | Kairo | 99.9% | 5.05 | 5.05 | 2025-05-16 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Cumin seeds, black, grade – A | EG | Kairo | – | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2025-05-16 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Cumin seed | SY | Dordrecht | – | 4.05 | 3.98 | 2025-05-16 | +1.76 | Firm |
| Cumin powder | SY | Dordrecht | – | 4.92 | 4.78 | 2025-05-16 | +2.93 | Firm |
| Cumin seeds, green, premium | IR | Tehran | – | 5.24 | 4.97 | 2025-05-03 | +5.43 | Firm |
| Cumin seeds, black, premium | IR | Tehran | – | 7.93 | 7.55 | 2025-05-03 | +5.03 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Daily arrivals in Gujarat’s Unjha market have doubled, but total sowing area in Gujarat and Rajasthan is down for 2024–25, signaling a smaller Indian crop.
- Demand: Remains below normal; some buying from Bangladesh and exporters. Awaiting significant demand increase from China.
- Export Opportunity: India is competitively priced and could boost exports before new crop arrivals from Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan (harvests start June–July).
📊 Fundamentals
- Production: Sowing area down in India for 2024–25 after last year’s exceptional price rally and normalization.
- Stocks: Tight availability is preventing a major price correction despite weak demand.
- Speculative Positioning: Exporters and traders are supporting prices; speculative activity is limited.
- Global Context: Indian cumin remains cheaper than some global competitors, supporting export demand in the short term.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India (Gujarat/Rajasthan): Weather remains mostly dry with seasonal temperatures, supporting current harvest and quality. No major weather disruptions reported.
- Competing Origins (Turkey, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan): Weather outlook is stable; new crop arrivals expected June–July. Watch for any late-season weather events that could delay harvests or impact yields.
- Impact: Stable weather in India supports quality and timely movement. Potential weather risks in competing regions could offer further export opportunities for Indian cumin.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024–25 Output Trend | Stock Situation | Export Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Down (reduced sowing area) | Tight | High (short window) |
| Turkey | Harvest June–July | Normal | Rising soon |
| Syria | Harvest June–July | Normal | Rising soon |
| Iran | Harvest June–July | Normal | Rising soon |
| Afghanistan | Harvest June–July | Normal | Rising soon |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect range-bound trading with mild daily fluctuations (USD 1.20–2.40 per quintal) until new export demand emerges or competing harvests begin.
- Monitor export trends, especially from China and Bangladesh, for any signs of demand resurgence.
- Short-term window for Indian exporters to capitalize on competitive pricing before global harvests ramp up.
- Traders should watch weather developments in Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan for potential supply-side shocks.
- Stockists may consider holding inventory as tight availability is likely to persist until July.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Markets)
| Date | Unjha (USD/20kg) | New Delhi (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | 53.60–54.20 | 2.58–2.62 | Stable/Firm |
| 2025-05-19 | 53.50–54.30 | 2.57–2.63 | Stable |
| 2025-05-20 | 53.40–54.40 | 2.56–2.64 | Stable |
[pmb_chart ids=190,193,189]
