The ginger market is currently experiencing a nuanced dynamic shaped by seasonal consumption shifts, regional supply variations, and global production disruptions. As summer arrives across India, both fresh and dry ginger sales have shown a slight slowdown, particularly in retail and wholesale segments. This has resulted in a marginal softening of prices in several regions. However, the underlying tone of the market remains firm, primarily due to ongoing export demand and a notable reduction in international supply, especially from Nigeria—a major global supplier.
Despite increased domestic production of dry ginger this season, prices have not seen significant downward pressure, reflecting the tightness in global supply chains. The previous season’s record-high prices incentivized Indian farmers to offload inventories, leading to limited raw ginger availability for drying. This year, while arrivals have improved, the estimated 50% drop in Nigerian production is keeping export interest robust and supporting prices. Exporters and stockists, particularly in Karnataka, are actively purchasing, further underpinning the market.
With limited new arrivals in Kerala and negligible supply from other regions, sentiment remains positive. The combination of steady export demand and weak international availability suggests that dry ginger prices are likely to remain firm in the short term, even as domestic demand moderates due to seasonal factors.
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Ginger dried
whole
FOB 3.51 €/kg
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Ginger dried
slices
FOB 3.15 €/kg
(from IN)
Ginger dried
Powder
FOB 3.98 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger dried | Whole | India | New Delhi | $3.49 | $3.49 | 2025-05-17 | Firm |
| Ginger dried | Slices | India | New Delhi | $3.12 | $3.12 | 2025-05-17 | Stable |
| Ginger dried | Powder | India | New Delhi | $3.96 | $3.96 | 2025-05-17 | Firm |
| Ginger dried | NUGC (99%) | India | New Delhi | $3.75 | $3.75 | 2025-05-17 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Domestic demand: Softening due to summer, particularly in Kerala and other southern states.
- Export demand: Remains steady, supporting prices despite domestic slowdown.
- International supply: Tight, with Nigerian dry ginger production down by 50% year-on-year.
- Arrivals: Limited new arrivals in Kerala; fresh ginger from Bangalore arriving in Delhi.
- Stockist activity: Active buying by exporters and stockists in Karnataka.
📊 Fundamentals
- Previous season: Record prices ($2.40–$2.70/kg) led to aggressive farmer selling and lower stocks for drying.
- Current season: Better domestic dry ginger production, but arrivals still below normal in some key states.
- International context: Nigeria’s production drop is a key bullish driver for Indian exports.
- Market sentiment: Positive, with expectations for continued firmness in dry ginger prices.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India (Kerala, Karnataka): Hot and dry weather is prevailing, reducing domestic demand but supporting crop drying and quality.
- Bangalore: Stable weather aiding fresh ginger arrivals to northern markets.
- Nigeria: Weather-related production issues have contributed to the significant drop in output.
Impact: Weather is not currently a threat to Indian production, but global supply remains tight due to adverse conditions in Nigeria.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (tonnes) | YoY Change | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,800,000 | +5% | Improved, but stocks below historic average due to last season’s sell-off |
| Nigeria | 150,000 | -50% | Critically low |
| China | 600,000 | Stable | Normal |
| Bangladesh | 180,000 | +2% | Normal |
📌 Market Drivers
- Weak international supply, especially from Nigeria
- Steady export demand from Asia and Middle East
- Seasonal slowdown in domestic demand
- Active buying by exporters and stockists
- Improved but still below-normal arrivals in India
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect dry ginger prices to remain firm in the near term due to tight global supply and steady export demand.
- Monitor arrivals in Kerala and Karnataka; any significant increase could cap further price gains.
- Exporters should secure supplies early, given strong international interest and limited Nigerian output.
- Stockists may consider holding positions as market sentiment remains bullish.
- Watch for weather developments in key Indian and African growing regions.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Ginger dried (Whole) | $3.49 | $3.45 – $3.55 | Firm |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Ginger dried (Slices) | $3.12 | $3.10 – $3.18 | Stable |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Ginger dried (Powder) | $3.96 | $3.90 – $4.00 | Firm |
Short-term outlook: Prices are expected to remain steady to firm, with upside risk if international supply tightens further.
