Soya Market Faces Pressure: Global Supplies Surge, Prices Slide Amid Shifting Demand

The global soya market is experiencing a dynamic and challenging phase as export prices, particularly for GMO soybeans in Ukraine, continue to decline. This trend is driven by the influx of competitively priced, high-quality soybeans and soybean meal from South America and the USA, which is pressuring both local demand and prices. Over the past week, GMO soybean prices in Ukraine fell by $3-5/ton to $385-387/t (UAH 18,000-18,100/t) delivered to Black Sea ports, while processor prices dropped by UAH 100-300/t. The number of active exporters is diminishing as buyers turn to more attractive offers from abroad. Meanwhile, non-GMO soybeans have maintained price stability due to limited stocks, trading at $425-435/t (UAH 19,800-20,100/t) at ports.

On the international stage, Brazil continues to ramp up its export forecasts, with ANEC raising May estimates to 14.52 million tons. However, Chinese imports have slowed significantly, dropping from 8.6 to 6.08 million tons year-on-year in April, reflecting reduced shipments from both Brazil and the USA. In the US, favorable planting weather has supported crop progress, with 66% of the planned area sown by mid-May, well ahead of last year and the five-year average. Despite this, soybean futures on the CBOT have edged lower, influenced by ample supply and robust processing volumes, which have pushed soybean oil stocks to a 10-month high. These developments underscore a market in flux, with abundant supply, shifting trade flows, and weather conditions all playing pivotal roles in shaping the outlook for the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Update Date
China	Yellow, Organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	0.67	0.65	2025-05-21
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	FOB	0.59	0.58	2025-05-21
USA	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.33	0.34	2025-05-16
India	Sortex Clean	–	No	New Delhi	FOB	0.71	0.73	2025-05-16
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	FOB	0.37	0.36	2025-05-16

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Export demand for GMO soybeans is falling, pressured by increased global supply and more competitive prices from South America and the USA. Non-GMO soybeans remain stable due to low stocks.
• Brazil: ANEC raised May soybean export forecast to 14.52 million tons (+0.25 Mt), though shipments to China are slowing.
• China: April soybean imports fell from 8.6 to 6.08 million tons year-on-year, with sharp declines from both Brazil (-22.2%) and the USA (-43.7%).
• USA: 66% of planned soybean area sown (vs. 50% last year), with favorable planting weather supporting rapid progress.
• Processing: US NOPA April crush reached a record 5.5 million tons, pushing cumulative seasonal crush to 44.7 million tons.

📊 Fundamentals

• GMO soybean prices in Ukraine fell to $385-387/t (UAH 18,000-18,100/t) delivered to Black Sea ports.
• Non-GMO soybeans stable at $425-435/t (UAH 19,800-20,100/t) at ports.
• CBOT July futures: $386.9/t, down 1.9% week-on-week, but up 1% month-on-month.
• Soybean oil stocks in the US rose to 950,000 tons, a 10-month high, as export rates slowed due to higher prices versus South American oil.
• Speculative positioning remains cautious, with funds trimming long positions on ample supply outlook and slow demand from China.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Favorable planting conditions have enabled rapid sowing progress. Short-term forecasts indicate continued mild, dry weather, supporting crop establishment.
• Brazil: Harvest is concluding, with generally favorable weather in key producing states. No major disruptions expected.
• Ukraine: Mixed weather, with some localized dryness, but overall adequate for crop development at this stage.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023/24 Production (Mt)	2023/24 Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	154.6	30.5
USA	113.3	9.7
Argentina	50.0	4.8
China	20.8	25.6
Ukraine	4.9	0.6

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟠 Sellers: Consider accelerating sales of GMO soybeans in Ukraine before further price declines, as global supply remains abundant.
• 🟢 Buyers: Take advantage of current price softness, especially for GMO soybeans, but monitor for potential supply disruptions or weather events.
• 🟡 Processors: Monitor US crush margins and soybean oil stocks; high inventories may pressure by-products further.
• 🔵 Speculators: Maintain a cautious stance; ample supply and slow Chinese demand limit upside, but weather risks in the US remain a wildcard.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (USD/t)	Forecast Range (USD/t)	Sentiment
CBOT (July Futures)	386.9	384 – 390	Neutral/Soft
Ukraine (GMO, Port)	385-387	383 – 387	Bearish
Ukraine (Non-GMO, Port)	425-435	425 – 435	Stable
Brazil (FOB)	Approx. 380	378 – 382	Neutral