Wheat Market: European Supply Concerns Push Prices Higher

Wheat Futures Climb – EU Crop Outlook and Ukraine Tensions Fuel Rally

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Wheat Futures Climb – EU Crop Outlook and Ukraine Tensions Fuel Rally

➡ Wheat markets surged on Wednesday, with futures rising in both Paris and London. Dry weather across parts of Europe, uncertainty in Ukraine, and technical momentum supported gains across maturities.

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protein min. 11.50%

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📈 Price Overview

Exchange Delivery Closing Price Change Currency
Euronext Sep ’25 €212.00/t ▲ +0.00 EUR
Euronext Dec ’25 €222.50/t ▲ +0.00 EUR
ICE London Jul ’25 £165.90/t ▲ +£2.20 GBP
ICE London Nov ’25 £186.70/t ▲ +£2.75 GBP

🔍 Key Market Factors

  • 🇪🇺 Strategie Grains revised EU wheat crop down due to ongoing dryness in central and southeastern Europe

  • 🇺🇦 Uncertainty around Ukraine’s grain corridor and trade regime fuels supply-side tension

  • 🌎 Global wheat stocks are tightening, adding momentum to speculative buying

  • 📉 Technical breakout in ICE Feed Wheat confirms trend reversal

🌍 Regional Weather Update

Region Trend Market Impact
🇫🇷 France Near-normal Good for yield stability
🇩🇪 Germany Dry in south Stress possible if drought persists
🇷🇴 Romania Dry, hot Yield risk growing
🇺🇦 Ukraine Volatile Planting delayed, trade risk rising

📊 Strategy & Technical Outlook

  • 📈 Momentum and supply fears continue to support the rally

  • 🛡 Hedging advisable if prices test €225/t resistance (Dec Euronext)

  • 🔄 Volatility expected to persist until Ukraine’s trade status is clarified

🔮 3-Day Forecast (May 22–24)

Market Direction Comment
Euronext ▲ Bullish bias Dryness + Ukraine + fund flows
ICE ▲ Bullish Technical break confirms upside
CBOT Wheat ▲ Firm Spillover to corn and soy continues


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