Wheat Market Outlook: Indian Record Harvest Promises Global Price Pressure

The global wheat market is at a critical juncture as India, the world’s second-largest producer, is poised for a record harvest. After a period of weather-driven uncertainty, favorable conditions during the crucial grain-filling stage have propelled Indian wheat yields to new highs. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects India’s wheat output to reach 117 million tons, a figure that would not only replenish domestic stockpiles to a four-year high but also potentially reshape global supply dynamics. This bumper crop comes after the country’s 2022 export ban, which was triggered by severe heatwaves that year. Now, with government granaries full and procurement up 14% year-on-year, there is growing pressure from domestic millers to relax export restrictions. Global wheat prices have risen nearly 3% this month, but the prospect of India re-entering export markets could exert downward pressure, especially as other key exporters like Ukraine and France maintain stable output. Meanwhile, weather remains a pivotal factor: the Northern Hemisphere’s growing regions are entering critical stages, with current forecasts indicating generally favorable conditions. This could further ease supply concerns and reduce food inflation risks worldwide. For traders and market participants, the coming weeks will be decisive, as government policy decisions and weather developments converge to set the tone for the 2025 wheat campaign.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US (CBOT)	Protein min. 11.50%	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.23	0.00	Stable
France (Euronext)	Protein min. 11.00%	Paris	FOB	0.27	0.00	Stable
Ukraine	Protein min. 11.00%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	-0.01	Softening

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Expected record harvest of 117 million tons for 2024/25 (USDA), with procurement up 14% year-on-year and stockpiles at a four-year high.
• Export Policy: India’s flour millers are lobbying to lift the export ban, a significant potential shift in global flows.
• Global Prices: Wheat prices have risen nearly 3% this month, but India’s bumper crop and possible export resumption could pressure prices lower.
• Ukraine & France: Output remains stable, with Ukraine’s FOB prices slightly softening, reflecting ample supply.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Project strong Indian output and rising global inventories.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains cautious; potential for volatility if India re-enters export markets.
• Food Inflation: India’s improved harvest expected to ease domestic food inflation, with spillover effects globally.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Favorable conditions during grain-filling; no major weather damage reported. Harvest nearly complete.
• US Plains: Mild temperatures and adequate rainfall support yield prospects.
• Black Sea Region: Ukraine and Russia report stable conditions; minor localized dryness but no widespread threats.
• France: Cool, wet spring has supported crop development; risk of late disease is low.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	YoY Change
India	117	Four-year high	+3%
China	135 (est.)	High	Stable
Russia	90 (est.)	Rising	+2%
EU	130 (est.)	Stable	Stable
Ukraine	22 (est.)	Recovering	+4%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Indian government policy on wheat export ban; a lift could trigger price declines.
• Watch for weather developments in the US, Black Sea, and EU as crops near harvest.
• Short-term price pressure likely if India’s record harvest enters global markets.
• Consider hedging strategies if exposed to downside risk in wheat prices.
• End-users may benefit from locking in forward contracts amid potential for increased supply.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.23	0.22 – 0.23	Softening
Euronext (France)	0.27	0.26 – 0.27	Stable/Softening
Odesa (Ukraine)	0.20	0.19 – 0.20	Softening

Key Takeaway: India’s record harvest is a game-changer for global wheat markets. Watch for policy shifts and weather in key regions for price direction in the weeks ahead.