Crude Oil Extends Losses – Sentiment Weakens on Rising Supply Signals
WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropped again on Thursday, pressured by weak global demand signals, rising stockpiles, and the absence of any supportive signals from OPEC+. Traders are increasingly cautious ahead of next week’s U.S. holiday and data releases.
📊 Market Overview – WTI & Brent Futures
| Crude Type | Contract | Price (USD/bl) | Daily Change | % Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | Jul 25 | 60.80 | –0.77 | –1.27% | ⬇️ |
| Brent | Jul 25 | 64.07 | –0.84 | –1.31% | ⬇️ |
| Brent | Aug 25 | 63.52 | –0.86 | –1.35% | ⬇️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- EIA Data: Inventories Rise Again
U.S. crude stocks increased for the second consecutive week. The surprise build has dampened bullish momentum and raised concerns about slowing refinery activity. - No OPEC+ Action Yet
With no new policy signals ahead of the June meeting, traders are left guessing. Some believe voluntary output cuts will be extended, but no official confirmations have been made. - Macro Concerns Remain
China’s economic activity remains below expectations, while European industrial demand is soft. The dollar’s recent strength also pressures commodities priced in USD. - Geopolitical Risk Premium Fades
Middle East tensions have eased for now, further limiting upside in risk premiums.
💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook
Crude oil remains in a downtrend. WTI is approaching technical support near $60.00, with further downside risk if momentum accelerates.
Recommendations:
– Sell rallies toward $62.00–63.00
– Protect short-term downside with put spreads
– Monitor OPEC+ headlines and global mobility trends for signs of demand pickup
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (WTI Jul 25)
| Date | Expected Range (USD/bl) | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| May 23 | 60.50–61.50 | ⬇️ Bearish bias |
| May 24 | 59.80–61.20 | ➡️ Watch OPEC+ |
| May 25 | 59.50–60.90 | ⬇️ Pressure persists |
🔎 Note on Crude Oil
Unlike agricultural commodities, weather does not directly impact crude oil pricing. Instead, energy markets are more sensitive to:
- Inventories
- OPEC+ decisions
- Macroeconomic data
- Geopolitical events
