Lentils Market Outlook: Abundant Supply and Steady Prices as Global Harvests Improve

Global lentil markets are entering a period of relative stability and supply confidence as favorable weather conditions dominate forecasts for key producing regions. India—the world’s biggest pulse consumer—expects above-normal monsoon rainfall this season, raising prospects for a robust lentil and pulse harvest. As pulse prices in India hover at or below the government-set Minimum Support Price (MSP), domestic and international markets are signaling subdued volatility and no imminent return to last year’s sharp price spikes. Robust handling of past shortages, through expanded imports and supportive government policy, has successfully cooled the market. This scenario is echoed globally, as pulse harvests in other major exporting nations also look promising and international stocks appear healthy. These converging supply-side developments, combined with near-term demand trends and a watchful eye on impending import duty decisions, shape a lentil market that favors buyers and stabilizes price optimism—at least over the next several months.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Lentil Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Purity	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change (USD)	Sentiment
Red football	CA	Ottawa	No	–	2.48	0.00	Stable
Laird, Green	CA	Ottawa	No	–	1.64	0.00	Stable
Eston Green	CA	Ottawa	No	–	1.51	0.00	Stable
Small, Green	CN	Beijing	Yes	99.5%	1.42	+0.01	Firm/Up
Small, Green	CN	Beijing	No	99.5%	1.30	+0.02	Firm/Up

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Strong Indian Monsoon: 2024 brings above-average rainfall, boosting lentil (and overall pulse) yields. Sufficient supply predicted for the season.
• Below-MSP Pricing: Lentils and other pulses in India are widely trading under MSP, limiting upward price pressure and signaling adequate stocks.
• Import Dynamics: India’s record 6.8 million tonnes of pulse imports in 2024–25 (up 5.4% YoY) balances past supply shocks. Yellow pea duty waiver’s expiry may influence near-term trade flows, while other pulse duty waivers remain in place through March 2026.
• International Harvests: Expanded production forecasts in both exporting and consuming nations (including Canada, China, and Australia), alongside improved weather, are projected to support global inventories.
• Consumption Trends: Rising demand from domestic use and tourism, alongside strong government interventions, keep inventories in check.

📊 Fundamentals: Production & Stock Data

Country	Production (2024e, Mt)	Imports (2024e, Mt)	Pulse Stocks (latest, Mt)
India	~1.4	6.8	High (above MSP procurement levels)
Canada	~2.8	—	Ample
Australia	~0.45	—	Ample
China	~0.2	—	Steady

e = estimate; Mt = million tonnes

🌦️ Weather Outlook (Key Growing Regions)

• India: IMD forecasts above-average monsoon rainfall (June–September), boding well for kharif pulses and potentially leading to bumper yields.
• Canada: Mostly favorable seeding conditions; some regions in Saskatchewan and Alberta monitor dry pockets, but no significant threats reported as of week’s end.
• Australia: Near-normal rainfall and moderate winter temperatures are supporting steady crop development for lentils and other pulses.

📌 Trading Outlook & Insights

• Price levels across key centers remain stable, with moderate upward momentum on select organic/Chinese grades.
• Buyers benefit from ample global supply; current trends favor contract purchases and spot market coverage for near-term needs.
• No immediate supply disruption seen, but import duty decisions—especially for yellow peas—should be closely monitored for ripple effects.
• Watch Indian government procurement and monsoon progress for supply shifts. Any change to MSP policy or weather risks could alter outlook rapidly.
• Speculative positioning is light and market sentiment remains broadly neutral to bearish in non-premium grades.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, USD/kg)

Lentil Type & Origin	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
Red football – CA	2.48	2.48	2.47	2.47	Stable/Flat
Laird, Green – CA	1.64	1.64	1.64	1.63	Flat/Slight Ease
Eston Green – CA	1.51	1.51	1.51	1.51	Flat
Small green (conv.) – CN	1.30	1.30	1.29	1.29	Flat/Slight Ease
Small green (org.) – CN	1.42	1.42	1.41	1.41	Flat/Slight Ease