The Indian walnut market, especially in Jammu and Kashmir, is experiencing a period of rapid change and notable volatility. The recent government ban on all imports from Pakistan, announced on May 2, 2025, has significantly disrupted regular cross-border trade, effectively halting the influx of Afghan walnuts—which historically dominated the Indian market with their lower prices. This disruption has given a notable boost to domestic producers from Kashmir, who previously struggled with price suppression caused by cheaper imports. Exploring the current market scenario reveals that Kashmiri walnut prices have soared by 15-20% in the last month as demand pivots back to local products. However, underlying challenges linger: decreasing plantation area, declining exports, and fierce competition from China—whose chemically grown, competitively priced walnuts continue to lure away Indian buyers. This landscape presents both opportunities and risks for growers, traders, and importers, with shifts in supply, processing shortfalls, and the broader impact of shifting global demand patterns shaping the months ahead.
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Walnut kernels
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FOB 8.82 €/kg
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Walnut kernels
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FOB 5.75 €/kg
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Walnut kernels
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FOB 7.25 €/kg
(from IR)
📈 Walnut Prices — Latest Market Update
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Closing Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walnut kernels | IR | Tehran | Premium | No | 8.82 | -0.04 | Bullish |
| Walnut kernels | IR | Tehran | Grade B | No | 5.75 | -0.03 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | IR | Tehran | Grade A | No | 7.25 | -0.01 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels (inshell, premium) | IR | Tehran | Inshell Premium | No | 4.25 | -0.05 | Slightly Bearish |
| Walnut kernels (light halves, organic) | US | London | Light Halves 80% | Yes | 4.68 | -0.02 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels (light halves, organic) | IN | New Delhi | Light Halves | Yes | 5.5 | -0.05 | Firm |
| Walnut kernels (various grades) | CN | Dalian | Light Quarter, Amber, Pieces | No | 2.35–3.4 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Government Import Ban: India’s ban of Pakistani imports immediately halted Afghan walnut inflows, boosting demand and price for Kashmiri walnuts.
- Domestic Demand Surge: Kashmiri walnuts have seen prices rise by 15–20% in less than a month, driven by reduced foreign competition and renewed demand.
- Export Decline: Despite higher prices domestically, overall exports from Kashmir are falling (85% to 30% domestic demand share in four years).
- Competition from China: Chinese walnuts, significantly cheaper (USD 2.35–3.40/kg vs. USD 7–8 for organic Kashmir), exert downward pressure on premium markets.
- Processing Gaps: Jammu and Kashmir lacks adequate walnut processing units, limiting ability to capture added value and compete internationally.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Area Under Cultivation: Shrinking, from 47,000 to 46,200 hectares (2017–2022), reflecting long-term production risks.
- Production Trend: Sharp drop—from 1.70 lakh tonnes (2020) to just 0.30 lakh tonnes (2024).
- Price Comparison: Kashmiri walnuts: USD 84–96/kg; Chinese walnuts: USD 42–48/kg.
- Organic Methods: 90% of Indian walnuts are organically cultivated, providing a premium narrative but facing marketing hurdles.
- Import Sources: Afghanistan (now halted), USA (California), China, Chile.
🌦 Weather and Crop Outlook
- Kashmir Valley: Current weather forecasts indicate moderate temperatures and relatively stable rainfall, favourable for kernel development but increased risk if late rains persist.
- California: Walnut groves in California see persistent drought conditions, potentially impacting yields in the 2025 season if sustained.
- China — Xinjiang & Yunnan: Crop development mostly normal, but earlier frost episodes may slightly trim overall output predictions.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Snapshot
| Country | 2023 Production (MT) | 2024 Est. (MT) | Inventory Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1,300,000 | 1,350,000 | Up |
| USA (California) | 730,000 | 720,000 | Flat/Down |
| Iran | 360,000 | 310,000 | Down |
| India | 37,000 | 30,000 | Down |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Indian buyers may face continuing high prices for quality Kashmiri produce as long as import restrictions persist.
- Growers should watch for early signs of market correction if Chinese imports regain popularity or government policy shifts.
- Investments in local processing and branding could unlock further premium potential for Kashmiri walnuts.
- Importers should diversify suppliers given production uncertainty in California and Iran.
- Short-term speculative positions remain favourable on domestic Kashmiri walnut prices, but risk increases if trade flows normalize.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tehran (Premium Grade) | 8.82 | 8.90 ± 0.10 | Bullish |
| Tehran (Grade B) | 5.75 | 5.78 ± 0.05 | Stable |
| New Delhi (Organic Halves) | 5.50 | 5.62 ± 0.08 | Firm |
| Dalian (China, Quarter/Pieces) | 2.35–3.40 | 2.40–3.45 | Stable |