Indian Monsoon Boosts Corn Sowing: Global Corn Market Braces for Supply Surge

The corn market is currently witnessing a pivotal shift, influenced largely by the early arrival of monsoon rains in major Indian producing states—most notably Karnataka. The state has experienced an unprecedented 149% surplus in rainfall, encouraging farmers to commence sowing ahead of the usual schedule. This has resulted in remarkable year-on-year increases in corn acreage, and the outlook signals potentially robust production for the 2025–26 kharif season. Globally, while South American and Ukrainian output determine export competitiveness, India’s aggressive planting may reshape import dynamics, especially in Asia.

The broader backdrop for corn is a tug-of-war between comfortable global inventories and shifting regional weather patterns. Recent CBOT and Euronext futures remain stable to moderately bearish as traders anticipate higher global supplies. However, USDA crop progress reports, speculative flows, and weather volatility in the US Midwest and Black Sea region inject uncertainty. For now, the market leans towards a supply-driven outlook, but with pockets of weather-related risk premium.

Early monsoon activity in India is a game-changer for the corn balance sheet, and ample rainfall could see the country exceed its ambitious foodgrain targets. For both farmers and global traders, focus should remain on weather development, exportable surpluses, and consumer demand, which will determine near-term price direction and policy responses.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Origin	Type/Grade	Country/City	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT* (Benchmark)	Corn Futures	US/Chicago	—	~0.19*	-1.5%	Neutral/Bearish
Euronext* (Benchmark)	Corn Futures	FR/Paris	—	~0.23*	-1.2%	Neutral
Dordrecht (NL)	Popcorn	BR/NL	FCA	0.75	N/A	Stable
Buenos Aires (AR)	Popcorn 40/42	AR	FOB	0.83	0%	Stable
Paris (FR)	Yellow Corn	FR	FOB	0.27	0%	Neutral
New Delhi (IN)	Corn Starch, Organic	IN	FOB	2.04	0%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Corn	UA	FOB	0.21	-0.01	Bearish
Odesa (UA)	Yellow Feed Corn, 98%	UA	FCA	0.25	0%	Neutral

*Indicative prices, as actual latest futures prices may vary slightly based on intra-day trading.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Karnataka alone has planted 71,400 ha corn, up 160% YoY; total cereal area in the state up 91%. Early rain is advancing sowing with positive implications for 2025–26 output targets.
• US: Corn planting largely complete; weather favorable but some Midwest areas seeing excess moisture. Export pace slightly behind last year.
• Ukraine: Exportable supply remains large, but persistent Black Sea logistics risks.
• South America: Brazil and Argentina’s main harvests are finishing; overall global supply is adequate but quality mixed.
• Demand: Animal feed and ethanol use steady; Chinese import interest subdued after heavy 2024 buying.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA May 2025: World ending stocks projected stable at 312 Mt; trade to remain elevated, led by Ukraine and Brazil.
• India’s foodgrain (incl. corn) 2025/26 target: 11.14 Mt for Karnataka.
• Corn acreage in key Indian states up sharply; market expects 10–15% increase in national sown area.
• Speculative net length at CBOT corn: reduced vs prior month (suggesting fund caution).

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India (Karnataka): Pre-monsoon rain >100% above normal; sowing accelerated. Next week forecast: mostly favorable, some isolated showers, ideal for crop emergence.
• US Midwest: Variable; some heavy rain slowing fieldwork, but no major adverse impact yet. Warm, humid week forecast.
• Black Sea: Mixed; southern Ukraine dry, central regions adequate for crop establishment.
• Brazil: End of main harvest season; early signs of normal winter rains.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	2023/24 Production (Mt)	Change (%)
US	386	56	390	-1.0
China	280	210	277	+1.1
Brazil	118	9	137	-13.9
Ukraine	26	2.5	29	-10.3
India	35	3.7	34	+2.9
EU	62	7.5	61	+1.6

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term, prices may remain under bearish pressure amid expanding global supply, especially with positive Indian and US weather.
• Monitor Indian monsoon progress—any delay/flood/drought could shift market sentiment rapidly.
• Watch for US weather scares and Black Sea logistic updates; remain nimble with positions.
• Importers may delay major purchases awaiting possible further price dip in July-August.
• Exporters should hedge old crop but be mindful of logistics and new crop quality risks.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT (US): $0.19–$0.20/kg, weak trend, minor weather rally possible
• Euronext (FR): $0.23–$0.24/kg, stable/neutral
• Ukraine FOB: $0.21–$0.22/kg, mild downside bias
• Paris (Yellow Corn): $0.27/kg, flat