Mustard seed prices in India are holding steady amid a delicate balance between robust daily arrivals and restrained buying from oil mills. On Monday, the market in Jaipur saw conditioned mustard quoted at a consistent USD 79.80 per quintal, reflecting little movement despite a surge in daily arrivals to 550,000 bags—an increase from the prior session’s 450,000 bags. While this steady inflow has prompted select oil mills to trim procurement prices slightly, overall demand remains cautious, especially as international edible oil markets—Chicago soya oil futures and Malaysian palm oil—signal few catalysts for a domestic uptrend. With 5.025 million tonnes of mustard arriving at mandis by the end of May and significant unsold farmer stocks reported, market sentiment is tempered. End-of-season consumption will offer some price underpinning, but dynamics in imported oils and global weather will be the chief market movers in coming weeks.
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📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (USD/t) | Previous Price (USD/t) | Change | Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mustard seeds | yellow, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.85 | 0.84 | +0.01 | 2025-05-30 | Stable / Slightly Firm |
| Mustard seeds | yellow, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.00 | 0.99 | +0.01 | 2025-05-30 | Stable / Slightly Firm |
| Mustard seeds | brown, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.84 | 0.83 | +0.01 | 2025-05-30 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | brown, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.77 | 0.76 | +0.01 | 2025-05-30 | Stable |
| Mustard seeds | sinapis alba | KZ | Kiełczygłow (PL) | FCA | 0.79 | 0.77 | +0.02 | 2025-05-28 | Firm |
- Stable demand amid high arrivals keeps prices firm.
- Minor upward movement noted in offer prices, reflecting resilience.
🌍 Supply & Demand
- May 2025 arrivals in Indian mandis: 1.1 million tonnes (down from 1.45 million tonnes in April).
- Total arrivals by end May: 5.025 million tonnes (with 3.5 million tonnes crushed).
- Farmers’ unsold stock: Approx. 6 million tonnes.
- Processor/stockist holding: 775,000 tonnes.
- Nafed & Hafed holding: 1.55 million tonnes.
- Arrivals rose to 550,000 bags/day recently, suggesting robust harvest logistics.
- Oil demand remains moderate; seasonal pick-up expected but overshadowed by oil import trend.
📊 Fundamentals
- Mustard oil prices:
- Kota (Kachi Ghani): USD 17.04 per 10 kg (up slightly)
- Bharatpur: USD 16.80–16.86 per 10 kg (steady)
- Kolkata: USD 17.16 per 10 kg (stable)
- USDA/Indian government reports confirm adequate stocks and declining arrivals month-on-month.
- Limited speculative activity, with processors acting defensively on procurement.
- No strong cues from Chicago soya oil or Malaysian palm oil seen this week; international edible oil complex remains range-bound.
🌦️ Weather Impact & Outlook
- India (Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh): Currently dry and warm, benefiting harvest logistics but raising concerns if heat persists into sowing months. Monitor pre-monsoon showers and temperature spikes.
- Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Seasonal conditions normal.
- Canadian Prairies: Timely rainfall and mild temperatures support positive outlook for 2025 plantings.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (mn t) | 2024/25 Stocks (mn t) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 12.5 | 8.3* |
| Canada | 0.59 | 0.18 |
| Ukraine | 0.66 | 0.11 |
| Russia | 0.31 | 0.09 |
*includes farmer, stockist, government and trade holdings
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers:
- Procurement should remain tactical; large supply limits short-term price rallies.
- Monitor international edible oil cues and weather—especially as sowing window nears.
- Sellers:
- Staggered selling advised; modest price gains likely as arrivals slow into monsoon period.
- Processors:
- Avoid bulk buying unless there are clear signs of tightening supply.
- Capitalize on export opportunities if Indian oil prices remain competitive against soya/palm oils.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/qtl) | Forecast Range (USD/qtl) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur (conditioned) | 79.80 | 79.60 – 80.00 | Stable |
| New Delhi (FOB) | 0.77 – 1.00 (per kg) | 0.76 – 1.02 | Stable |
| Kota (oil, 10kg) | 17.04 | 17.00 – 17.10 | Stable |
Price stability is expected in the short-term, with marginal gains possible if arrivals slow and demand upticks materialize in edible oils.