The Chinese buckwheat market is caught in a tug-of-war this week, shaped by both domestic supply pressures and external competition. On one side, Chinese producers are facing dwindling on-farm stocks as last year’s harvest gets further absorbed by the market. This tightening is paired with a strong reluctance among farmers to sell at current, persistently low prices—a psychological dynamic supporting price steadiness. Meanwhile, rising buckwheat imports, buoyed by competitive international offers, are providing clear price advantages. These imports act as an effective substitute for domestic buckwheat, counterbalancing the market and preventing price surges despite local scarcity.
This has resulted in stable week-on-week prices, echoing a broader sentiment of uncertainty. Export activity in the summer market remains tepid, underscoring the role of imports as a buffer against local supply anxieties. Looking ahead, prices are forecast to remain steady next week, barring unexpected shifts in supply or weather conditions. In conclusion, the Chinese buckwheat market continues to walk a tightrope between internal supply constraints and the persistent shadow of global competition.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Buckwheat
hulled, organic
99.95%
FOB 0.74 €/kg
(from CN)
Buckwheat
hulled, yellow
99.95%
FOB 0.66 €/kg
(from CN)
Buckwheat
hulled
FCA 1.33 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices & Market Snapshot
| Origin | Type | Organic | Location | Delivery | Price (USD/kg) | Change (WoW) | Date | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | hulled, organic | Yes | Beijing | FOB | 0.74 | +0.02 | 2025-06-04 | Offer |
| China | hulled, yellow | No | Beijing | FOB | 0.66 | +0.01 | 2025-06-04 | Offer |
| Poland | hulled | Yes | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 1.33 | 0 | 2025-05-30 | Offer |
| Poland | hulled | No | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 0.87 | 0 | 2025-05-30 | Offer |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Domestic farmer stocks are depleted; remaining supplies are tightly held as price expectations edge up, despite subdued levels.
- Increased imports (notably from Eastern European origins) are capping price rises and substituting for domestic buckwheat, particularly in industrial use and export blending.
- Chinese processors are seen as actively sourcing import alternatives given the current price advantage and local tightness.
- Summer export demand remains slow, reducing external relief for local stocks.
📊 Fundamentals & Recent Market Developments
- China’s central buckwheat-producing provinces report limited remaining farmer stocks as of June 2025.
- Price increases are modest: Organic, hulled prices up to $0.74/kg, conventional up to $0.66/kg FOB Beijing—both a slight rise over last week, yet under historical averages.
- Non-Chinese supplies (Poland/Netherlands) show no price movement, indicating weak external demand or stable supply chains.
- Import flows to China are likely to accelerate if domestic prices move higher.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Recent weather in central China: Moderate temperatures, mixed rainfall; no major disruptions to current crop or late-seeding areas.
- Forecast: Seasonal temperatures and average precipitation expected for next week—neutral for crop development; minimal risk of immediate yield shocks.
- European growing regions (Poland, Ukraine): No extreme conditions reported; modestly positive for export availability over the season.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023 Production (est, 1000 t) | 2023 Ending Stocks (est, 1000 t) | 2024/25 Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 420 | 35 | Stable to Slightly Tightening |
| Poland | 60 | 7 | Stable |
| Russia | 108 | 16 | Stable |
| Ukraine | 110 | 10 | Potential Export Growth |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Take advantage of stable prices, but monitor import activity closely—further increases may be capped by import competition.
- Sellers: Farmers advised to maintain a slow selling pace as current price support persists; consider selling if a meaningful rally occurs (e.g., above $0.76/kg FOB for organic).
- Processors: Pursue flexible sourcing—including import offers—to mitigate local tightness and manage risk.
- Exporters: Watch for potential improvement in export demand as global supply/demand recalibrates with the new crop later this year.
- Speculators: Limited near-term volatility; range-bound trading with slight upside risk if supply tightens or weather turns adverse.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Direction | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing, China (FOB) | 0.74 (organic), 0.66 (conventional) | 0.74 / 0.66 | Stable | Neutral-Firm |
| Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | 1.33 (organic), 0.87 (conventional) | 1.33 / 0.87 | Stable | Stable |
