Millet Market Bulls Charge Ahead as Tightening Supplies Push Prices Higher

The Millet market has sprung into a definitive bullish phase as tightening supplies and robust demand paint a strong outlook for the coming months. With inventories from the September–October 2024 harvest nearly depleted, and fresh supplies not expected until the next major harvest in September, current market sentiment is shifting firmly upward. Traders, processors, and speculators are all closely tracking the shrinking stocks, with expectations of significant price appreciation in the near term. Larger consumption from government ethanol blending programs and revived demand from distilleries have already soaked up most of the official reserves, while private traders have largely sold off their holdings earlier this season.

The stall in price declines over the past fortnight, combined with reports of dry, premium-quality millet becoming exceptionally scarce, heightens the bullish outlook. Across major trading hubs in India, prices have begun to edge higher, with quality millet fetching a marked premium. Global exporters, meanwhile, show mixed moves, with some Chinese and Polish origins seeing slight corrections, while Ukrainian market prices hold steady. Market participants anticipate that with an estimated 17–17.5 million metric tonnes already committed or consumed, further upward momentum is likely in the weeks ahead. The extent of early consumption, fueled by industrial demand and government policies, means any unexpected weather risks in major producing regions could further exacerbate tightness and volatility. For those strategically positioned in the market, careful monitoring of weather, inventory and policy signals remains crucial as we approach the leanest period of the season.

📈 Prices

Location / Exchange	Product	Type	Purity	Origin	Delivery	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Etawah, Auraiya, Kasganj, Chharra, Etah, Mainpuri (IN)	Millet	Dry/Premium	—	IN	Spot	0.264–0.265	+5.4%	Bullish, rising
Bhilwara, Durg, Shekhawati, Marudhar (IN)	Millet	Dry/Premium	—	IN	Spot	0.27–0.2715	+5.2%	Bullish, rising
Mouli, Barwala (IN)	Millet	Premium	—	IN	Spot	0.288–0.2915	+5.7%	Bullish, strong premium
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds	Hulled, yellow	—	UA	FOB	0.19	0.0%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds	Inshell, red/yellow	98%	UA	FCA	0.23	0.0%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Millet kernels	Hulled, yellow	98%-99%	UA	FCA	0.40–1.20	0.0%	Stable to premium
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels	Hulled, yellow	99.90%-99.95%	CN	FOB	0.74–0.82	-1.2%	Weaker, slight correction
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Millet seeds/kernels	Raw/Hulled, yellow	98%-99.95%	PL	FCA	0.30–0.44	-6.3%	Weaker, adjusting

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Current supplies from the 2024 main harvest are nearly exhausted in both producing states (India: Rajasthan, UP, Haryana) and transit/trading markets.
• Government stock: Released stocks earlier in the season are now largely absorbed, with no further tenders anticipated soon.
• Private inventory: Largely offloaded by traders, further tightening spot availability.
• Demand: Stable-to-strong end-user and industrial demand, especially for quality, dry millet. Distillery demand is rising again after a lull.
• Ethanol blending policy: Allocation of 5.2 million tonnes of rice to ethanol blending indirectly tightened alternative cereal supplies, pushing up millet demand and price.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Total 2024 production: 17–17.5 Mt (India), with significant early consumption by ethanol plants & government programs.
• Stocks-to-use ratio: At a multi-year low after heavy early-season usage and limited stocks remaining till next harvest.
• Trade feedback: Consistent scarcity of quality, dry millet, with premium widening.
• Speculative outlook: Most market participants anticipate an increase of USD 1.20–1.50/qtl (about 5%) in the coming month.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India: The start of the 2025 monsoon is delayed in Rajasthan, parts of UP, and MP, with below-average rainfall in June. Expected to normalise by July, but the risk exists for delayed sowing.
• China: Major growing areas in North and East continue to see regular rainfall, maintaining favourable soil conditions for summer millet crops.
• Ukraine/Poland: Cool, wet pattern this week but otherwise normal; no significant yield risks projected. Harvest starts end of August.

Impact: Continued dryness or late monsoon onset in India could worsen the tight supply. Weather in Ukraine/Poland favors average yields, but Indian developments are most crucial for global pricing in the next 3 months.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2024 Production (Mt)	Stocks (As of June 2025)	Exports (Mt, est.)
India	17–17.5	<2.5	0.25
China	4.5	2.1	0.28
Ukraine	0.12	0.03	0.10
Poland	0.09	0.02	0.09

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect immediate price firming as stocks run dangerously low before the 2025 new crop arrival.
• Weather volatility—particularly late or erratic Indian monsoon—remains a key risk for new crop prospects. Monitor rainfall weekly.
• Distillery/ethanol demand will continue underpinning prices at least through August. Any expansion in blending mandates would amplify this effect.
• Premium for quality, dry millet is likely to widen further; buyers should secure forward contracts where available.
• Late Sathi millet sowing is down in key UP/Agra districts—watch for potential spot shortages in August.
• For exporters: Premiums for the highest quality millet are set to rise against average grades. Chinese and Polish origin offers may appear attractive on price if Indian flows tighten further.
• For feed-users: Consider alternative grains or cover crops ahead for 3–4 months.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Spot Market, per Quintal)

Market Center	Current (USD)	Day 1 (USD)	Day 2 (USD)	Day 3 (USD)	Sentiment
Etawah, UP (IN)	26.40	26.55	26.65	26.75	Bullish
Bhilwara, RJ (IN)	27.00	27.15	27.25	27.35	Bullish
Mouli, HR (IN)	29.00	29.15	29.25	29.40	Bullish
Odesa (UA, FCA)	0.19/kg	0.19/kg	0.19/kg	0.19/kg	Stable
Beijing (CN, FOB)	0.74/kg	0.74/kg	0.74/kg	0.74/kg	Stable