The global oat market is experiencing renewed downward pressure as prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) continue to slide, driven by robust supply outlooks and soft demand sentiment. The July 2025 oat contract closed at 376.50 US cents per bushel, down 1.75 cents (-0.46%), extending its recent correction. Most forward contracts saw a steeper 1.8-2% decline, reflecting heightened bearish sentiment in the short term. In the physical market, Ukrainian oat quoted at 0.23 USD/kg FCA Odesa also edged up modestly, though the price remains historically low and indicates subdued demand.
Market fundamentals have shifted as USDA acreage surveys suggest an increase in planting area, especially in key producing regions like Canada and the US Upper Midwest, potentially offsetting concerns about last year’s poor yields.
However, short-term weather risks persist, with forecasts indicating above-normal warmth and scattered showers in parts of the Canadian Prairies, crucial for oat development. Any intensification of drought threats or excessive rain could quickly tighten the market again. As speculative funds continue to unwind long positions, oats are locked in a tug-of-war between growing optimism for supplies and vigilance over crop weather. Traders and feed buyers should closely monitor new USDA condition reports and Canadian Crop Progress as these will drive sentiment in the coming weeks. Overall, the market remains under pressure, but volatility could return quickly if new weather threats alter the balance.
📈 Prices: Latest CBOT Oat Futures and Physical Offers
| Contract | Last (US Cent/bu) | Weekly Change (%) | Closing Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25 | 376.50 | -0.46% | 06.06.2025 | Bearish |
| Sep 25 | 373.75 | -0.99% | 06.06.2025 | Bearish |
| Dec 25 | 365.50 | -0.20% | 06.06.2025 | Soft Bearish |
| Origin | Grade | Location | Delivery | Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Feed, 98% | Odesa (FCA) | Immediate | 0.23 | +0.01 (+4.5%) |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- USDA Acreage Estimates: Spring surveys point to an increased oat planting area in both the US and Canada, pressuring prices lower.
- Global Inventories: World oat stocks are recovering from 2024 lows due to higher seeding intentions and improved yields in key exporting nations.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed funds have trimmed long positions, contributing to the current bearish bias.
- Demand from Feed Sector: Remains adequate but lacks urgency at current price levels, with alternative feed grains in good supply.
📊 Fundamentals Snapshot
| Country | 2024/25 Production (m t) | 2023/24 Stocks (m t) |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3.65 | 0.63 |
| US | 0.85 | 0.26 |
| EU | 8.50 | 2.10 |
| Australia | 1.08 | 0.14 |
| World | 22.4 | 4.01 |
🌦️ Weather Update & Outlook
- Canada Prairies: Forecasts call for above-normal temperatures and scattered showers; watch for pockets of dryness in Alberta and Manitoba.
- Northern US: Conditions are generally favourable, but Minnesota and North Dakota need regular rain for strong yield potential.
- Europe: Mixed outlook—northern areas wet, central/eastern drier but not critical yet.
Next week’s weather will be pivotal; further heat or rain deficits could spark a rebound in futures.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term trend remains soft/bearish amid growing supply expectations.
- Feed buyers may continue to pace purchases, but consider forward cover in case weather turns adverse later this month.
- Monitor speculative flows—any reversal by funds can amplify price moves quickly.
- Watch Canadian and US crop progress reports—yield downgrades would trigger fresh upside.
- Physical buyers in the Black Sea region can explore current Ukrainian offers as attractive hedges.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Origin | Current Price | Forecast (3 days) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Jul 25 | 376.50 US Cent/bu | 374.00–377.00 US Cent/bu | Soft Downside |
| Ukraine FCA Odesa | 0.23 USD/kg | 0.22–0.23 USD/kg | Stable–Soft |
Key risks: Weather surprises in North America, fund short-covering, and new trade/export policy shifts in the Black Sea region.
