Corn Market Faces Pressure from Record Brazilian Harvest and Favorable US Weather

The global corn market has entered a period marked by volatility, with prices facing notable downward pressure at both major futures exchanges. At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), the July contract opened the week with a sharp 9-cent decline, reflecting heightened selling momentum and liquidation of recent gains. On the Euronext, Paris, futures saw their front-month August contract slump to its lowest level in over nine months, illustrating the bearish sentiment gripping European markets. Underpinning these declines are several interlinked forces: record crop prospects in Brazil, steadfast US crop progress buoyed by favourable weather, and muted demand prospects for US corn as South American exports ramp up. While strong US export performance—USDA reported 1.656 million tons of export inspections—briefly lifted hopes, the overarching sentiment is cautious as focus shifts to the robust Brazilian Safrinha (second) crop starting harvest.

The pace in Brazil remains historically slow due to excess moisture, echoing early planting delays, but overall yield forecasts remain optimistic. Meanwhile, Ukrainian production forecasts have been revised down, but there is still ample global supply on hand. Weather forecasts point to timely rains across key US growing regions, further supporting crop health and adding to market pressure. For producers and traders, these dynamics set the stage for near-term price softness, with a need to closely monitor export flows and weather risks.

📈 Prices: Latest Corn Futures at a Glance

Exchange	Contract	Close	Change	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBoT	Jul 25	433.50 US¢/bu	-9.00 (-2.0%)	-1.5 (-0.3%)	Bearish
CBoT	Sep 25	422.25 US¢/bu	+0.25	n/a	Neutral to Bearish
CBoT	Dec 25	438.00 US¢/bu	-0.75	n/a	Neutral
Euronext	Aug 25	188.25 EUR/t	-2.00 (-1.05%)	-1.75 (-0.9%)	Bearish
Euronext	Nov 25	197.75 EUR/t	-1.25	n/a	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazil: Safrinha harvest is beginning, but progress is slow (1.9% complete vs 10% last year) due to wet fields. Large overall crop expected, boosting export potential.
• USA: Export inspections strong (1.656m t last week), but global competition intensifies. Crop Progress: 97% planted, 90% emerged (above 5-year avg.), and 71% rated good/excellent (+3pp vs last week).
• Ukraine: APK-Inform cut corn output forecast by 2.1m t to 24.9m t, tightening Black Sea supplies somewhat.
• Demand: Anticipated global competition weighs on the US export outlook in the coming weeks.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

Origin	Latest FOB Price	Weekly Change
AR Popcorn (Buenos Aires)	0.83 USD/kg	0.00
FR Yellow Corn (Paris)	0.27 USD/kg	0.00
IN Starch Corn (Organic, New Delhi)	2.02 USD/kg	-0.02
UA Corn (Odesa)	0.21 USD/kg	0.00
UA Yellow Feed Corn (Odesa)	0.25 USD/kg	0.00

🌦 Weather Outlook & Impact

• US Corn Belt: Forecasts indicate widespread rain across eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, northern Iowa, and southern Corn Belt. This will likely maintain or improve crop condition ratings and promote rapid growth.
• Brazil: Persistently wet conditions slowed Safrinha harvest in Mato Grosso and adjoining regions, but overall moisture supports high yield potential after harvest is completed.
• Ukraine: No major weather threats reported for cornfields, but reduced output forecast reflects earlier dryness and planting issues.

🌐 Global Production & Inventories

• Brazil: Large 2024 crop anticipated, could set export records if weather stays cooperative during harvest.
• USA: Crop progress and condition figures are robust, maintaining sentiment for a strong 2024 harvest.
• Ukraine: Lowered output forecast eases some supply pressure but is overshadowed by ample South American and North American supplies.
• China/EU: Stable, but watch for potential import demand shifts if Ukraine’s exportable surplus tightens further.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term price pressure is expected as Brazilian exports rise and US crop prospects remain favourable.
• Watch for the pace of the Brazilian harvest: any significant delays or weather disruptions could trigger technical bounces.
• Monitor US export inspections and demand signals from key buyers, especially in Asia and North Africa.
• Options strategies (put spreads) to hedge against further declines are recommended for producers with unsold stocks.
• Importers: Current price dips may offer favourable procurement windows in the coming week.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast	Bias
CBoT	Jul 25	427–435 US¢/bu	Soft/Bearish
Euronext	Aug 25	186–190 EUR/t	Soft/Bearish
Ukraine FOB	Spot	0.20–0.22 USD/kg	Steady
France FOB	Spot	0.26–0.28 USD/kg	Steady/Soft