The millet market is currently navigating a period of seasonal softness as summer temperatures rise across key Asian production regions, notably China. With consumers reducing millet rice purchases and millers showing less enthusiasm for new procurement, pressure on local supply chains is easing, resulting in localized spot price declines. Despite sown acreage in some areas being down by over 30% year-on-year, ample residual stocks are cushioning the market against abrupt shortages. June’s overall market sentiment is shaped by the interplay of strong spot supply and muted demand, leading to stabilized mainstream prices but the likelihood of slight regional dips.
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Millet kernels
hulled, yellow
99.90%
FOB 0.80 €/kg
(from CN)
Millet kernels
hulled, yellow
99.95%
FOB 0.72 €/kg
(from CN)
Millet seeds
hulled, yellow
FOB 0.19 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Type / Purity | Organic | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price (USD/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millet kernels | China | Hulled, yellow, 99.90% | Yes | Beijing | FOB | 0.80 | 0.82 | 2025-06-10 | Bearish |
| Millet kernels | China | Hulled, yellow, 99.95% | No | Beijing | FOB | 0.72 | 0.74 | 2025-06-10 | Bearish |
| Millet seeds | Ukraine | Hulled, yellow | No | Odesa | FOB | 0.19 | 0.19 | 2025-06-05 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- As temperatures climb in June, Chinese millet rice sales are slowing, softening the domestic market.
- Millers and traders are less active in procurement; most stockholders are holding back on fresh buying.
- 2025 sown area is over 30% lower compared to last year in major provinces, yet on-hand stocks remain considerable and likely sufficient until the new harvest arrives.
- Global supplies from Ukraine and Poland are stable, but European prices are soft and unchanged, maintaining export competitiveness.
- Spot demand is weak, and further downward price drift is possible in low-volume Chinese regional markets.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA data (latest available): Global millet production in 2024/25 is projected slightly below 2023/24 due to adverse weather and lower sown area in Asia.
- Chinese stocks: Despite sharply reduced acreage, high beginning stocks ensure supply sufficiency for the next quarter.
- Speculative activity: Minimal, with market positioning neutral to mildly bearish given lack of fresh external demand and seasonality.
- Major exporters: China, Ukraine, and Poland currently dominate global millet offers; Ukrainian and Polish export prices are stable.
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. (est, kt) | 2024/25 Stocks (est, kt) |
|---|---|---|
| China | 2,200 | 950 |
| India | 6,800 | 1,200 |
| Ukraine | 350 | 110 |
| EU | 330 | 80 |
🌦 Weather Outlook
- Northern and Northeast China: Continued above-average temperatures forecast for late June; no widespread drought risk yet, but some areas could see local water stress affecting yield if July is hotter than seasonal averages.
- Ukraine and Poland: Summer rains and average temperatures bode well for finishing crop development and harvesting.
- India: Early monsoon is progressing smoothly, supporting sowing, but continued monitoring needed.
Potential Impact: Any prolonged heatwaves, especially in China, could shrink yields further and tighten 2026 supply, but near-term (June-July) losses are limited by current reserves.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Spot and near-term pricing remains under mild pressure in China due to slack demand and abundant carryover stocks.
- Downside in regional Chinese markets, while stable to neutral in Europe and Ukraine.
- Hold off on new buying for processors until late July unless immediate cover is required; monitor July weather for yield risk signals.
- Exporters: Accept current bids if stocks are ample, as price gains before next harvest are unlikely absent weather shocks.
- Importers: Steady supplies at stable prices from Ukraine and Poland continue; monitor China for abrupt trend change if weather deteriorates sharply.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange/City | Product | Forecast Price (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Beijing (FOB) | Millet kernels, 99.90% | 0.79-0.80 | Slightly Bearish |
| China | Beijing (FOB) | Millet kernels, 99.95% | 0.71-0.72 | Slightly Bearish |
| Ukraine | Odesa (FOB) | Millet seeds, hulled | 0.19 | Stable |
Stability or continued mild easing is expected for millet prices in the main global exporting regions over the coming days, with risk limited by current inventories and subdued off-season demand.
