The barley market is entering a period of marked stability, characterised by largely unchanged exchange prices and a delicate balance between supply and demand factors. Recent price data from the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) and Ukraine’s cash market reveal flat quotations, reflecting both ample inventories and a wait-and-see approach among major grain producers and buyers. While spot and forward contract prices have shown minimal volatility, several fundamental drivers could reshape the landscape in the coming months. Global barley production remains steady, but regional weather developments, particularly in Ukraine — a leading exporter — and persistent dryness in parts of Australia threaten to tilt the scales.
Meanwhile, barley’s position as a critical feed grain keeps its fortunes tightly linked to outlooks in the livestock and malting industries, as well as substitution effects with corn and wheat. Despite the current lull, market participants should remain vigilant. Climatic risks, shifting trade dynamics post-Black Sea disruptions, and currency movements are poised to test this equilibrium. This report delivers a comprehensive snapshot of pricing, fundamentals, and near-term forecasts, equipping you with actionable insights for the volatile months ahead.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange/Market | Contract/Product | Closing Price | Currency | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFE (Sydney Futures Exchange) | Jul 25 Futtergerste (Feed Barley) | 310.00 | AUD/t | 0.00% | Stable |
| SFE (Sydney Futures Exchange) | Sep 25 Futtergerste | 310.00 | AUD/t | 0.00% | Stable |
| Ukraine (Cash) | Barley seeds, Feed grade (Odesa, FOB) | 0.21 | USD/kg | 0.00% | Flat |
| Ukraine (Cash) | Barley seeds, Feed grade (Kyiv, FCA) | 0.23 | USD/kg | 0.00% | Flat |
| Ukraine (Cash) | Barley seeds, Feed grade (Odesa, FCA) | 0.24 | USD/kg | 0.00% | Flat |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Barley output in the Black Sea region remains robust but faces emerging risks from patchy, dry weather in Ukraine and Russia. Australia’s crop is currently steady but may be affected by El Niño conditions.
- Demand: The feed sector shows consistent barley uptake, supported by competitive pricing relative to corn. Malting demand holds steady in Europe, with China actively sourcing volumes from multiple origins due to ongoing trade disputes with Australia.
- Imports/Exports: Ukraine and Australia continue as global leaders in barley exports, while key importers include China, Saudi Arabia, and the EU. Black Sea shipping remains under scrutiny due to security and logistical concerns.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Reports: The Latest WASDE update suggests global barley stocks are sufficient, but forecasts could change swiftly if adverse weather persists.
- Acreage: Planted areas in the EU and Ukraine are slightly up vs. last year. Australian acreage is flat but under review amid rainfall deficits.
- Stocks: Global barley ending stocks projected near last year’s level; minor drawdowns expected in some exporting countries.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains neutral; no significant speculative buildup seen.
🌤️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications
- Ukraine: Slightly below-average rainfall in eastern regions, raising localised drought concerns ahead of harvest. Some fields show stress, but the overall impact is currently limited.
- Australia: East coast faces ongoing dryness, with El Niño increasing potential for further stress. West remains stable, limiting country-wide impact.
- EU: Mostly favourable; scattered storms in France and Germany could boost yields, though isolated flooding is a risk.
🌎 Production & Stock Comparison Table
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. (Mt) | 2024/25 Exports (Mt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
| Australia | 11.1 | 7.5 | 1.6 |
| EU | 52.3 | 8.0 | 6.8 |
| Russia | 19.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| China | 1.8 | — | 0.7 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 | — | 2.5 |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Maintain hedging strategies for Q3 and Q4 2025 amid potential weather volatility in major exporters.
- Monitor export flows from the Black Sea and Australia for signals of price moves.
- Livestock feed buyers: Consider forward contracts to lock in stable pricing as harvest approaches.
- Watch for WASDE and government crop updates in July for early signs of production revision.
- Short-term traders: Lack of price momentum suggests range-bound trading; await a clear fundamental breakout.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Exchange/Location | Current | Forecast Range | Currency | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFE, Jul 25 (Australia) | 310.00 | 308.00 – 312.00 | AUD/t | Stable/Neutral |
| Ukraine, Odesa (FOB) | 0.21 | 0.20 – 0.22 | USD/kg | Flat |
| Ukraine, Kyiv (FCA) | 0.23 | 0.22 – 0.24 | USD/kg | Flat |
| Ukraine, Odesa (FCA) | 0.24 | 0.23 – 0.25 | USD/kg | Flat |
