Wheat Market Analysis: Price Pressure from Strong Harvests and Firm Euro—What’s Next?

The global wheat market is currently facing notable downward volatility, with key futures falling on major exchanges. Weaker closes on Euronext and CBOT reflect persistent supply-side pressures—the September Euronext wheat contract lost €0.75 to settle at €198.75/t, reaching new contract lows amid a strengthening euro and improved European harvest prospects. Strategic reports continue to revise EU wheat yields upward, buoyed by favourable weather across Spain and Southeast Europe, while recent rains have alleviated dryness in Northern Europe. This has not only resulted in higher EU soft wheat production estimates from several analysts and the USDA (now at 136.55 million tons, up 550,000 t from May), but has also weighed heavily on export enthusiasm and spot prices.

Meanwhile, U.S. wheat futures mirrored these losses, with CBOT July down 7.75 cents at 532.5c/bu, offset only slightly by a modest recovery attempt on Friday. The Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts displayed regional divergence: while HRW contracts declined, spring wheat futures in Minneapolis edged higher. Globally, the WASDE report offered a muted bullish undertone by trimming old-crop ending stocks and noting record global consumption forecasts. Yet, these factors couldn’t offset the gravity of robust new-crop projections and sluggish export trades—Net U.S. wheat export sales (week ending June 5) reached 388,900 t, missing market expectations.

The balance of market sentiment remains bearish short term, but weather and macroeconomic factors warrant close monitoring. The firm euro, robust EU and UK yield outlooks, ongoing adjustments in global stocks, and a slight uplift in global trade forecasts by 1.3 million t to 214.3 million t are all key points of attention. For market participants, anticipatory risk management and strategic planning are critical as market volatility persists.

📈 Wheat Futures Prices – Snapshot

Exchange	Contract	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 25	€198.75/t	-0.75	Bearish
CBOT	Jul 25	530.75 c/bu	-7.75	Bearish
Kansas City (HRW)	Jul 25	—	-2 to -4	Bearish
Minneapolis (Spring)	Jul 25	—	+2 to +5	Neutral
ICE (Feed wheat)	Jul 25	£155.55/t	-0.30	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Strategie Grains & Cereal have raised EU soft wheat crop projections—up to 143.1 Mio t, a marked increase from earlier forecasts.
• USDA pegs EU wheat at 136.55 Mio t (up by 550,000 t m/m), 15.5% above last year’s output.
• WASDE: Global 2025/26 wheat end stocks cut to 262.76 Mio t, production seen stable at 808.59 Mio t but global use up to a new record at 809.9 Mio t — consumption exceeds output yet again.
• US weekly new wheat export sales: 388,900 t (below trader expectations).
• EU/UK 2025 projected wheat surplus poses regional storage and price pressure challenges.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• The firm euro near 1.1594 USD (highest in 3.5 years) undermines EU export competitiveness.
• WASDE 2025/26: only minor global adjustments, but long-term stocks trend lower, trade volume up modestly.
• Speculative positioning remains net short due to large global inventories, robust EU crops, and macro headwinds.
• Lacklustre export demand in both the US and EU weighs on spot and futures prices.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• EU: Recent rainfall across northern areas (Germany, Poland, UK, Scandinavia) has reversed earlier dryness, improving yield potential.
• Southern/Eastern EU (Spain, Balkans): Continue to see favourable, even record-breaking, conditions.
• Black Sea: Generally stable weather, but some local dryness in southern Russia bears watching for late fill risks.
• US: Plains and Midwest see mixed outlook—good for winter wheat cuts, but pockets of dryness may challenge late spring wheat in the Northern Plains.
• Near-Term Risk: Any heatwave or return of dryness during heading/harvest could reverse bullish bias quickly.

🌏 Global Wheat Production & Stocks (Key Regions)

Country/Region	2024/25 Output (Mio t)	2024/25 End Stocks (Mio t)	Trend
European Union	136.55 (USDA)	—	↑ Revision
Russia	84-88*	18-19*	Sideways/↑
US	49.26	18.89	Neutral/↓
Canada	32–34*	6*	Sideways
Australia	29–31*	6*	Sideways
China	137*	138*	↑/Stable
World Total	808.59	262.76	Stocks Down

*Analyst/Industry estimates

🔔 Price Offers – Physical Wheat (Latest)

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Current Price	Previous	Currency
US	Protein min. 11.5% (CBOT)	Washington DC	FOB	0.23	0.24	USD
France	Protein min. 11.0%	Paris	FOB	0.27	0.28	EUR
Ukraine	Protein min. 11.0%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	USD
Ukraine	Protein min. 10.5%	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.21	USD
Ukraine	Protein min. 12.5%	Odesa	FOB	0.21	0.21	USD
Ukraine	Protein min. 11.5%	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.26	USD
Ukraine	Protein min. 11.5%	Kyiv	FCA	0.24	0.25	USD
Ukraine	Protein min. 9.5%	Kyiv	FCA	0.23	0.23	USD
Ukraine	Protein min. 9.5%	Odesa	FCA	0.24	0.24	USD

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Further price pressure is likely for old-crop contracts on Euronext and CBOT if favourable weather persists.
• Watch for volatility on any return of adverse weather in the US Plains or Russian South — fast reversals are possible.
• Exporters: Consider hedging via CBOT or Euronext. Lock in forward sales if the basis remains stable.
• Importers: Take advantage of dips to secure Q3/Q4 needs, especially for higher-protein origins in the Black Sea region.
• Speculators: Market remains vulnerable to sudden weather-driven rebounds, but short bias intact on fundamentals.
• Monitor: Dollar/euro exchange rate as a key factor for EU export pricing and competitiveness.

⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Current	Forecast Range	Bias
Euronext (Sep 25)	€198.75/t	€196–€201/t	Weak/Neutral
CBOT (Jul 25)	530.75 c/bu	525–536 c/bu	Weak/Neutral
ICE Feed Wheat (Jul 25)	£155.55/t	£154–£158/t	Weak/Neutral