The barley market currently finds itself at a turning point, with prices holding relatively steady across global and regional exchanges. The recent data from SFE Futtergerste shows little to no change in near-term contract prices, reflecting a cautious optimism among traders but also underlying uncertainty regarding future supply and demand dynamics. Ukrainian export offers, a key benchmark for Black Sea barley, remain unchanged, further underscoring the market’s lateral movement. While buyers and sellers watch for signals from upcoming harvests and weather developments in the Black Sea region and Australia, speculative interest has tempered, as reflected in flat volumes and limited volatility.
Global barley production forecasts suggest modest increases, yet localised weather risks—particularly in Europe and the Black Sea—hang over the market. Key demand drivers include feed demand, export flows to the Middle East and China, and ongoing competition with other grains. As planting wraps up in the Northern Hemisphere, market participants are also alert to the impact of currency fluctuations and shifting geopolitical landscapes. While most traders anticipate a stable short-term scenario, attention is focused on weather forecasts, the pace of harvesting, and fresh updates from major exporters. For those trading barley, this means a period of close monitoring and readiness to react to weather and demand shocks.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange/Origin | Contract/Offer | Closing Price | Prev. Price | Weekly Change | Currency | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFE Futtergerste | Jul 25 | 310.00 | 310.00 | 0.00% | AUD/t | Neutral |
| SFE Futtergerste | Sep 25 | 310.00 | 310.00 | 0.00% | AUD/t | Neutral |
| SFE Futtergerste | Nov 25 | 310.00 | 310.00 | 0.00% | AUD/t | Neutral |
| SFE Futtergerste | Jan 26 – Jan 28 | 315.00 | 321.00 | -1.90% | AUD/t | Mildly Bearish |
| Ukraine (Odesa) | Feed barley, FOB | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.00% | USD/kg | Neutral |
| Ukraine (Odesa) | Feed barley, FCA | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.00% | USD/kg | Neutral |
| Ukraine (Kyiv) | Feed barley, FCA | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.00% | USD/kg | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Global production: The 2024/25 outlook projects a slight recovery in global barley supplies, driven by higher output in Russia and Australia. EU production is stable but faces weather risk.
- Demand: Feed demand remains robust, especially from China and the Middle East. Competition with corn and wheat persists in feed rations.
- Export flows: Ukraine and Australia are key exporters. Ukrainian supply is stable, but logistical and security issues may affect future flows.
- Inventories: Global ending stocks are slightly below the five-year average, supporting prices but lacking strong bullish momentum.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA reports: The Recent WASDE outlook indicates moderate global stock levels and a steady demand outlook.
- Speculative positioning: Funds have lightened positions amid low volatility and subdued trade volumes.
- Currency and macro trends: A stronger USD may limit US exports but support Ukrainian offers denominated in USD.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- Northern Europe & Black Sea: Short-term forecasts signal scattered showers and above-average temps—beneficial, but risks of heat stress linger.
- Australia: Winter rains above average in eastern growing areas, supporting crop establishment. Western regions remain drier than normal.
- Ukraine: Volatile weather—spells of dryness tempered by localised rains. Watch for yield impact if dry trend persists through late June.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Output (Mt) | 2024/25F Output (Mt) | Stock Level (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 20.5 | 21.7 | 2.2 |
| EU | 51.0 | 51.5 | 8.8 |
| Ukraine | 5.7 | 5.9 | 0.7 |
| Australia | 12.5 | 13.1 | 1.3 |
💡 Trading Outlook
- Near-term prices look rangebound as buyers and sellers await harvest and weather signals.
- The risk of weather-induced yield losses in the Black Sea warrants caution for short sellers.
- Importers may look for short-term coverage on dips below recent offers (FOB Odesa/Ukraine).
- Exporters advised to monitor logistics, currency movements, and regional demand signals.
- Volatility is expected to increase as harvest progresses and updated crop forecasts emerge.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Direction | Forecast Range | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFE Futtergerste | Stable | 310-315 AUD/t | Low volatility, neutral volume |
| Ukraine FOB/FCA | Stable | 0.21-0.24 USD/kg | Export offers flat |
| EU (France, Germany) | Slight risk lower | – | Awaiting the weather outcome |
