Rapeseed Market Analysis: Weather Risks and Resilient Acres Steer June Sentiment

Volatility has defined the European rapeseed market through the 2024-2025 growing seasons, with severe weather events persistently shaping both yield potential and market psychology. The crop was notably impacted by an autumn drought followed by damaging spring frosts, sparking widespread pessimism and spurring some farmers to consider replanting with alternative crops such as corn or sunflower. Early production forecasts dropped as low as 2.7 million metric tons (MMT), painting a bleak outlook for regional rapeseed supplies. However, nature proved dynamic as favorable weather during May prompted a rebound in crop condition—some weak stands even recovered enough to alter a portion of the most bearish forecasts. Supported by attractive pricing, many growers reversed replanting plans and stayed the course with rapeseed. Nevertheless, the next two weeks are critical: fresh weather models point to hot, dry conditions that could again threaten yields for both rapeseed and wheat. Market participants now eye the July crop report for potential downward revisions to output, depending on the full impact of June weather risks.

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📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Contract/Type	Purity	Delivery Terms	Last Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Market Sentiment	Updated
France	Paris	Generic	–	FOB	0.54	0.54	0.00	Stable	2025-06-12
Ukraine	Kyiv	42% min oil	98%	FCA	0.49	0.47	+0.02	Firming	2025-06-12
Ukraine	Odesa	42% min oil	98%	FCA	0.51	0.49	+0.02	Firming	2025-06-12

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production: Initial European production estimates were heavily revised down to 2.7 MMT in response to autumn drought and spring frosts. With improved May weather, more acres are likely to stay under rapeseed, diluting some of the supply fears, although final outputs remain highly weather dependent.
• Demand: Attractive local oilseed prices encourage acreage retention. Rapeseed meal and oil demand remains solid, particularly in the EU thanks to both food and biodiesel sectors. Importers are monitoring weather risks and EU crop reports for signals on regional balance.
• Inventories and Trade: Inventories are forecast to tighten should hot, dry June conditions reduce realized yields. Ukraine, a key supplier, shows firming prices (Kyiv, Odesa) which reflect tightening sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop Acreage: The initially feared massive replanting with corn/sunflower is retreating as prices incentivize sticking with rapeseed.
• Speculator Positioning: Traders have adopted a cautious to mildly bullish stance due to weather risk premium and possible further downward yield revisions.
• Global Stocks: Global rapeseed/canola stocks are expected to be lower year-on-year, with key exporters (Canada, Ukraine) also seeing weather-driven uncertainties.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Europe (France, Germany, Eastern Europe): Models predict a two-week hot, dry spell. Stress risk is acute for crops in late flowering or early pod fill—periods decisive for final yield. Monitor for additional downward revisions in July if precipitation fails to materialize.
• Ukraine: Similar hot, dry trends. Western regions could be more resilient given soil moisture but overall, flowering-stage crops are at risk.
• Canada/Australia (Global Context): Cool, adequate moisture in Canada; slightly drier than average in some Australian growing belts. No major disaster signals, but overall global oilseed yield risk is rising, supporting prices.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Table

Country	2024 Output Estimate (MMT)	2023 Output (MMT)	Trend/Notes
EU	2.7*	3.3	Down sharply; early weather losses, possible July revision
Ukraine	Variable (weather risk)	3.8	Hot/dry risk, firming prices
Canada	18.5	18.7	Stable, good moisture
Australia	6.0	7.6	Drier, but manageable

*Preliminary weather-impacted forecast, likely subject to update

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🌡️ Monitor weather updates: New forecasts are the key volatility driver for the next 3 weeks.
• 📉 Producers: Consider incremental sales if weather worsens and markets move higher; however, preserve flexibility in case of price spikes.
• 📈 Consumers: Secure coverage for Q3, especially if dependent on EU supply—watch for further production downgrades.
• 🤝 Traders: Use weather-driven rallies for partial profit taking, but keep risk exposures modest given forecast uncertainty.

🕒 3-Day Price Forecast

• Paris (FR): Stable to modestly firmer at 0.54–0.56 EUR/kg as weather risk supports prices.
• Kyiv (UA): Slight firming to 0.50–0.52 EUR/kg on tightening supply sentiment.
• Odesa (UA): Rangebound to firm at 0.51–0.53 EUR/kg as hot, dry outlook drives modest premiums.

Note: Monitor real-time offers and updated pricing for actionable trades.