Corn Market Update: Global Competition and Weather Pressure Prices Down

The global corn market is navigating a period of pronounced softening as export prices face an ongoing decline, particularly from Ukraine, one of the world’s major suppliers. The beginning of this week saw offer prices for feed corn at Ukraine’s crucial Greater Odesa ports drop further to $220–228 per ton, with Danube ports quoting $219–227 per ton CPT-port. This continued decrease—$1–3 per ton since last week—is being driven by persistently sluggish international demand and intensified competition from other exporting countries. Compounding these factors, favorable weather conditions across key U.S. corn-growing regions have accelerated crop development, hope for excellent yields, and deepened bearish sentiment among market participants. Price action on the French, Indian, Argentine, and Brazilian front remains mostly stable, yet the broader tone is cautious amid abundant supply prospects. Traders and producers are watching the supply chain, crop development rates, and speculative flows closely, as any shocks in weather, trade, or policy could alter the short-term price direction. In the current context, buyers are likely on the sidelines, awaiting further softness, while sellers seek signals for potential market stabilization or reversal.

📈 Prices: Key Corn Market Snapshot

Origin	Location	Type	Delivery	Latest Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
Ukraine	Greater Odesa	Feed	CPT-port	$220–228/t	$221–230/t	-1 to -2	USD	Bearish
Ukraine	Danube	Feed	CPT-port	$219–227/t	$220–230/t	-1 to -3	USD	Bearish
France	Paris	Yellow	FOB	€0.27/kg	€0.27/kg	0	EUR	Neutral
Ukraine	Odesa	Yellow feed, 98%	FCA	$0.25/kg	$0.25/kg	0	USD	Neutral
India	New Delhi	Starch (Organic)	FOB	$2/kg	$2.02/kg	-0.02	USD	Slightly Bearish
Argentina	Buenos Aires	Popcorn (40/42)	FOB	$0.83/kg	$0.83/kg	0	USD	Stable
Brazil	Dordrecht, NL	Popcorn	FCA	€0.75/kg	€0.75/kg	0	EUR	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Factors

• Supply Pressure: Ukraine’s shipment capacity remains high despite ongoing logistical challenges, and favorable U.S. Midwest weather is improving crop condition ratings and yield potential.
• Demand Side: International buyers are showing caution due to expectations for a robust 2025/26 global crop, with China and EU procurement sluggish.
• Competition: Brazil and the U.S. are ramping up exports, intensifying downward price pressure on Black Sea origins.
• Inventories: Global corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected higher than last year, reflecting well-supplied markets.

📊 Fundamentals & Key Drivers

• USDA Reports: Recent WASDE forecasts raised U.S. corn output projections amid improving field conditions, keeping price sentiment subdued.
• Crop Acreage: U.S. planted area remains above the five-year average, with Ukraine and Brazil largely maintaining acreage.
• Speculative Flows: Managed money remains net short on CBOT corn contracts, signaling pessimism over the short-term price outlook.

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• U.S. Midwest: Recent rainfall has been timely, boosting soil moisture and likely supporting above-trend yields.
• Ukraine: Moderate temperatures and scattered rains are favorable, with some regional flooding manageable; primary risk is later-season dryness.
• Brazil/Argentina: Transition to dry season, but favorable earlier rains have secured Brazilian second crop potential; Argentine fields near completion.

🌐 Global Production and Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output Estimate (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	390	60
China	280	210
Brazil	125	10
EU	65	7
Ukraine	28	2
Argentina	53	3

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish opportunities likely limited near term due to strong supply and weak demand backdrop.
• Buyers should monitor weather risk in U.S./Ukraine for opportunities to secure needs during setbacks.
• Sellers with old-crop stocks are advised to price promptly on further rallies, as competition may pressure values.
• Watch China/EU buying behavior and speculative activity to assess potential reversal signals.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Exchange/Market	Spot Price (12 June 2025)	Forecast (13–15 June 2025)	Sentiment
Ukraine	Odesa CPT-port	$220–228/t	$218–226/t	Bearish
France	Paris FOB	€0.27/kg	€0.26–0.27/kg	Slightly Bearish
Argentina	Buenos Aires FOB	$0.83/kg	$0.83/kg	Stable
India	New Delhi FOB	$2/kg	$1.99–2.00/kg	Slightly Bearish