Global Sesame Market 2025: Oversupply Drives Prices Down Despite Rising Demand

The global sesame seed market in 2025 is a unique study in contrasts—a robust expansion in trade is evident, with major importers like Japan, Korea, and Turkey increasing their purchase volumes. However, this growth masks a persistent oversupply that continues to exert downward pressure on international and domestic prices. Major exporters across Africa and South America are leveraging competitive pricing to outpace traditional Asian suppliers, shifting the trade landscape. While areas such as India and Pakistan struggle with reduced harvests due to adverse weather, production gains from Tanzania and Mozambique are offsetting potential shortfalls and feeding a still-saturated market. Currency movements, shifting sourcing patterns, and competitive government interventions further accentuate volatility. As 2025 progresses, the market’s key wildcards remain the harvest potential in Asia and Africa, and whether low prices will eventually trigger a supply correction or stimulate an even greater consumption surge.

📈 Prices

Origin	Product Type	Purity	Destination	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date
Egypt	Natural	99%	Cairo	FOB	1.88	1.90	2025-06-13
Egypt	Natural, golden	99.5%	Cairo	FOB	2.42	2.45	2025-06-13
Chad	–	99.95%	Germany (Neuenhagen)	FCA	1.70	2.22	2025-06-11

• Market Sentiment: Bearish – Continued downward trend due to excess supply and increased competition from Africa and South America.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Japan: Imports up 14% to 54,737 MT (Jan-Apr 2025), avg. price down 11% to $1,735/MT. Nigeria primary supplier, with Tanzania and Mozambique increasing share.
• Korea: Imports up 23% to 22,687 MT, avg. price down 9% to $2,097/MT. China now leading supplier; India and Nigeria see declines.
• Turkey: Imports up 25% to 84,828 MT, avg. price down 16% to $1,623/MT. Chad, Niger, Brazil significant, Ethiopia/Sudan shrinking roles.
• India: Production forecast cut to 100,000–120,000 MT due to weather; slow market arrivals, domestic prices drop 3–16%.
• Paksitan: Crop expected down 20–30%, harvest in August. Domestic use limited (5–10%).
• Africa (Tanzania, Mozambique): Strong harvests; Tanzania expects 250,000 MT, auction prices TZS 2,200–2,710/kg. Mozambique enjoys expanded competitive exports.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Inventories: Ethiopia holds 40,000–45,000 MT in stocks; price floor $1,400–1,530/MT FOB.
• Export Offers (June–July):
  • Brazil: $1,000–1,200 CFR
  • Pakistan: $1,210–1,250 CNF
  • Sudan: $1,550–1,600 FOB
  • Mozambique: $1,320–1,380 FOB
  • Paraguay: $1,100–1,120 FOB
• Currency movements: Brazilian Real (+2.02%), Tanzanian Shilling (+1.62%), Japanese Yen (-1.5%), Indian Rupee (-0.37%). This enhances competitiveness for Brazil and Tanzania and weakens price floors for importers like Japan/India.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Regional Impacts

• India: Weak monsoon rains impacting Gujarat and other producing regions, reduced acreage, and lower yields expected. Some recovery in West Bengal with good quality arrivals.
• Pakistan: Below-average rainfall seen, yield concerns persist. Crop 20–30% below previous year.
• Africa: Mozambique and Tanzania report favorable weather, boosting yields and export volumes. Ethiopia conditions stable but regulated pricing limits export potential.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025 Output Forecast (MT)	Main Export Destinations	2025 Stock Estimate (MT)
Tanzania	250,000	Japan, Korea, China	–
India	100,000–120,000	Japan, Korea, UAE	–
Pakistan	Down 20–30%	China, Southeast Asia	–
Brazil	Rising (est. >90,000)	Turkey, Middle East	–
Ethiopia	–	China, Israel, Europe	40,000–45,000
Mozambique	Strong, expanding	Japan, China	–

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Bearish pricing trend likely to persist until 2025 supply/demand rebalance appears.
• 🔄 Importers should leverage current oversupply for contract negotiation but closely monitor weather patterns in India and Africa mid-year.
• ⚠️ Exporters in India and Pakistan should hedge against further downside if weather remains adverse.
• 🌱 Buyers needing organic or specialty grades: be proactive, as price discounts are narrowing in some origins and grades.
• 🌍 Watch currency trends – further weakening of Asian currencies or strengthening of major exporters could affect import costs.
• 📦 Keep an eye on government policy shifts (Ethiopian price floors, new auction systems in Africa).

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Origins)

Origin	Delivery Terms	Current (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Sentiment
EG – Natural	FOB	1.88	1.87	1.87	1.87	Bearish
TD – Hulled	FCA	1.70	1.69	1.68	1.68	Bearish
IN – Hulled	FOB	2.04	2.03	2.02	2.02	Stable to Slightly Weaker