The global nut market, with a particular focus on pecans, is experiencing notable momentum as growers and exporters seek expanded international opportunities. Georgia, the heart of U.S. pecan production, is poised for a significant export shift, catalyzed by both political backing and strategic trade developments. With active engagement from Georgian lawmakers and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, efforts are underway to secure access for in-shell pecan exports to India – a market with rising demand and new price advantages. This development coincides with a major tariff reduction by the Indian government, dropping duties on U.S. pecans by 70% in 2023, which has revived optimism for a sharp growth in trade flows.
Projections from the USDA suggest a leap in exports to India from a current $1.3 million to potentially $5 million annually, should regulatory barriers be cleared in the coming months. Georgia, already accounting for over a quarter of U.S. pecan exports, stands set to benefit disproportionately from this surge. Looking further ahead, global pecan valuations are forecast to reach $3.64 billion by 2034, powered by increasing health-consciousness, premium snacking trends, and new market access. Against this backdrop, current EU market prices for competitive nuts like Brazil nuts have held steady; this provides a helpful benchmark when evaluating pecan market potential going into the second half of 2024. Weather conditions across core U.S. nut-growing regions remain supportive, with a neutral El Niño outlook and adequate rainfall anticipated during the critical pod development phase, supporting production stability.
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil nuts (Benchmark) | Netherlands | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | €6.60 | 0% | Stable |
| Pecans (Shelled, US Export) | USA (GA) | FOB US Gulf | FOB | ~€7.15 | +1.1% | Firm, buoyed by export outlook |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Georgia’s Role: The state accounts for 28% of U.S. pecan exports, featuring established infrastructure and processing capacity.
- India Market Access: India’s demand for in-shell pecans is driving regulatory and diplomatic activity. Success here could quadruple market size for Georgia exporters, boosted by the recent 70% tariff cut.
- Global Demand: Health trends, plant-based diets, and premium snacking fuel increasing consumption in EU, China, India, and the Middle East.
- Inventories: US stocks normalized after a large 2023 harvest; tight supplies in competing nut segments (such as almonds) add support to prices.
📊 Fundamentals (Drivers & Data)
- USDA Reports: Projected US pecan crop for 2024 at 140,000 metric tons (MT), up 2.5% year on year.
- Export Projections: US pecan exports to India forecast to jump from $1.3M (2023) to $5M (2024+) if in-shell access unlocked.
- Global Pecan Market: Estimated value $3.64B by 2034, CAGR 4.8%.
- Policy: India’s Dried Fruit and Nut Council supportive of swift regulatory action for in-shell imports; U.S. Congressional Delegation actively advocating.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Southeastern US (Georgia, Texas): Mild, stable weather with above-average rainfall expected; risk of heat spikes mitigated by increased humidity.
- Mexico (major alternative supplier): Slightly drier than average but not at critical levels; irrigation capacity adequate.
- Outlook for Crop: Current conditions support good kernel fill and low pest pressure; forecast remains bullish for yield outcomes.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023/24 Prod. (MT) | Share (%) | Stocks (MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 140,000 | 65% | 24,000 |
| Mexico | 60,000 | 28% | 8,000 |
| South Africa | 8,500 | 4% | 1,300 |
| Australia, Others | 7,500 | 3% | 800 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Exporters: Prepare documentation for Indian market; monitor developments with India’s Dried Fruit and Nut Council.
- Buyers/Traders: Consider forward contracts; watch for price upticks if in-shell access to India is confirmed.
- Hedgers: Take advantage of stable Brazil nut prices as a benchmark; consider long positions in US pecans given likely export surge.
- Retailers: Position premium, fresh-packaged pecans for health-focused and gifting segments in the EU and India.
- Overall Sentiment: Upbeat, with market support expected from diplomatic activity and weather stability.
📊 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Current (€) | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NL (Brazil Nuts FCA Benchmark) | €6.60 | €6.60 | €6.62 | €6.65 | Slight upward |
| US Gulf (Pecans FOB Export) | €7.15 | €7.17 | €7.19 | €7.23 | Upward (India boost) |
Key drivers: Indian regulatory decision, tariff regime stability, U.S. crop weather, global supply competition.
