Wheat Market Steadies as Chinese Procurement Surges and Quality Climbs

The global wheat market is entering a period of notable stability, buoyed by robust purchasing momentum from China and improvements in crop quality across key producing regions. China’s swift procurement pace—exceeding 17 million tonnes so far this season—signals growing confidence fueled by high-quality harvests and favorable government policies. According to the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, this year’s crop quality in China is surpassing historical averages, pushing market sentiment higher and underpinning premium prices for top-quality wheat. As a result, the wheat market remains resilient even amidst shifting external pressures, with market participants closely watching ongoing reserve procurement and policy moves. Elsewhere, high-quality wheat continues to command strong demand, and overall global fundamentals reflect both solid supply prospects and disciplined stock-building strategies. The industry now focuses on safeguarding producer interests and ensuring market balance during the crucial months ahead. Favorable conditions in both weather and policy may see wheat prices stabilize or find modest gains, albeit with persistent watchfulness for global weather swings and trade flows.

📈 Prices: Latest Wheat Exchange Overview

Origin	Location	Protein (%)	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
US (CBOT)	Washington D.C.	11.50%	FOB	0.23	0.24	-0.01	Neutral/Stable
France	Paris	11.00%	FOB	0.27	0.28	-0.01	Stable/Premium
Ukraine	Odesa	11.00%	FOB	0.20	0.20	0.00	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Chinese Demand: Rapid state-led purchases (>17m tonnes), supporting floor prices and boosting confidence.
• Quality Premiums: Increasing share of high-quality wheat in global trade, notably from China and France.
• Export Flows: Black Sea exports remain crucial, with Ukraine and Russia maintaining steady volumes despite logistical and political risks.
• Production Prospects: Better-than-average crop quality reported in both China and Europe, offsetting some harvest delays elsewhere.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA Reports: June forecasts point to steady global wheat supplies. World ending stocks marginally up, but below the 5-year average.
• Speculative Positioning: Fund managers remain neutral-to-lightly bullish as quality signals improve but upside risk is capped by healthy stocks.
• Chinese State Policies: Accelerated reserve buildup and price management helping stabilize both local and global pricing.
• Global Stocks: Moderate year-on-year gains in major exporters (EU, Russia, US), though stock-to-use ratios remain historically low for some regions.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• US: Warm, dry conditions in the Midwest, but critical rainfalls expected in the coming week—raising potential for near-normal yields.
• EU: Mixed patterns: France sees below-average rainfall but limited heat stress; Germany remains favorable for grain fill.
• Black Sea: Moderate temperatures and adequate moisture—Ukrainian and Russian wheat yields projected at or above average.
• China: Good harvest weather supports quality and minimal field losses in the north, consolidating this year’s positive output outlook.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2023/24 Prod. (Mt)	2023/24 Stocks (Mt)	Key Trend
China	137	124	High quality, large procurement
EU	132	14	Stable, minor gains
Russia	92	19	Strong export pace
US	50	16	Marginal improvement in stocks
Ukraine	23	4	Steady exports

🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect moderate to steady prices with limited downside, provided Chinese procurement and quality trends persist.
• Monitor upcoming USDA reports, as updated yield and stock figures could clarify market direction.
• Watch for renewed volatility from Black Sea logistics or geopolitical developments.
• Quality premiums likely to hold—French and US wheat may retain higher values relative to Ukrainian origin.
• Importers should consider gradual booking in dips; exporters/advisors should hedge as market finds support near current levels.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (3-day)	Direction
CBOT (US)	0.23	0.22 – 0.24	Sideways/Stable
Euronext (Paris)	0.27	0.26 – 0.28	Sideways-probable modest gains
Odesa (Ukraine)	0.20	0.19 – 0.21	Stable