Corn Market Faces Mixed Signals: Strong U.S. Exports vs. Favorable Growing Conditions

The global corn market is currently caught at a crossroads, shaped by both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, export demand for U.S. corn remains robust, as highlighted by the latest USDA inspection report showing a 21% year-on-year increase in shipments for the week ending June 12. Major importers such as Japan, Mexico, and South Korea are notably active. However, exceptional weather conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt are weighing on futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), supporting yield optimism as 94% of U.S. corn crops are up and thriving, well in line with five-year averages, with 72% rated good to excellent.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, a sluggish harvest (second-crop safrinha only 5.2% complete compared to 21% a year ago) is holding up global supply, shifting more buying interest back into South America later in the season. Despite this, Euronext and Dalian exchanges show stable to slightly weaker price patterns, while European and Ukrainian physical prices remain flat. With weekly weather forecasts pointing to continued rainfall and favourable temperatures in the U.S., yield prospects look positive, suggesting some downward pressure on futures may persist unless adverse weather emerges or export demand intensifies further.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Exchange/Market	Contract/Type	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext	Aug 25	185.50	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext	Nov 25	194.50	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT	Jul 25	433.75	-0.23%	US-Cent/bu	Bearish
CBOT	Sep 25	421.25	+0.36%	US-Cent/bu	Mixed
DCE (China)	Jul 25	2369.00	-0.04%	CNY/t	Flat

Physical Market	Origin	Delivery Terms	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency
Corn (yellow)	FR (Paris)	FOB	0.27	0.00%	EUR/kg
Corn	UA (Odesa)	FOB	0.21	0.00%	EUR/kg

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• U.S. Exports: USDA reported corn exports for the week ending June 12 at 1.673 million tons (+21% YoY), driven by strong demand from Asia and Mexico.
• Bullish Factors: Slow safrinha harvest in Brazil (only 5.2% complete vs. 21% last year) delays South American availabilities, maintaining near-term global tightness.
• Bearish Factors: Excellent U.S. crop ratings (72% good/excellent), widespread rainfall, and optimal planting progress pressure global prices.
• Speculative Positioning: Large managed money shorts persist in CBOT futures amid favourable weather, increasing volatility risks if conditions deteriorate.

📊 Fundamentals Update

• Crop Progress (US): 94% emergence (5-year avg.), 72% good/excellent, matching historical norms.
• Yield Prospects: Weather and soil moisture support high yield potential in the Midwest U.S., with rainfall forecast for key states this week.
• Brazil: Harvest delay could impact late-season pricing dynamics; eyes on safrinha pace and local weather.
• Global Stocks: USDA projects ending stocks slightly higher than the previous year, but tightness remains in some importing regions.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• United States: 7-day outlook calls for continued rainfall across the Corn Belt, especially in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, boosting moisture reserves and yield prospects.
• Brazil: Dry weather persists, slowing harvest progress and increasing logistical costs in the centre-south regions.
• Ukraine: Moderate showers forecast; ideal for crop development in Odesa and central regions.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	YoY Trend
US	387	53	Neutral
Brazil	116	12	Declining
China	280	219	Rising
EU	63	8	Stable
Ukraine	28	2	Neutral

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Monitor weather forecasts in the U.S. Corn Belt; consider spot purchases if adverse conditions emerge, but take a patient approach amid current bearish signals.
• Sellers/Farmers: Risk of further downside if U.S. weather persists; hedge with futures or options as protection.
• Importers: Secure coverage for Q3–Q4, especially if reliant on Brazilian or Ukrainian supply, where logistics and harvest pace remain risks.
• Speculators: Opportunity for volatility-driven trades if weather patterns shift; watch speculative short covering.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

 

Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Euronext (Nov 25)	194.50 EUR/t	193.00 – 195.00 EUR/t	Stable/Soft
CBOT (Sep 25)	421.25 USc/bu	418.00 – 423.50 USc/bu	Soft
DCE (Sep 25)	2397.00 CNY/t	2390.00 – 2405.00 CNY/t	Stable