Beans Market Under Pressure: High Temperatures, Tepid Demand, and Cautious Buyers Shape Outlook

As China enters a period marked by persistent high temperatures across most regions, the beans market is experiencing a complex interplay between seasonal demand drivers and increasing buyer caution. Historically, rising temperatures in early summer have boosted retail and wholesale movement of green (mung) beans due to their cooling properties and popularity in traditional diets.

This year, however, the pace of commercial trade is lagging, as most wholesalers report a substantial decline in volume, 20% to 30% lower compared to the same period last year. Elevated port prices and recent tentative price declines are prompting domestic buyers to play it safe, mainly managing inventory and restocking less aggressively. These trends signal a market in flux where supply pressure is met with demand uncertainty, symbolic of a broader shift in both consumer and trade expectations as global conditions evolve.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Country	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Last Update	Direction	Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic	CN	Beijing	1.51	1.50	2025-06-17	↑	Cautious/Bearish
Mung beans	3.8 mm up	CN	Beijing	1.42	1.41	2025-06-17	↑	Neutral
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	1.50	1.52	2025-06-17	↓	Softening
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	3.35	3.37	2025-06-17	↓	Softening
Kidney beans	Dark red, organic	CN	Beijing	2.47	2.49	2025-06-17	↓	Softening
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	1.56	1.58	2025-06-17	↓	Softening
Kidney beans	Dark red	BR	Brasília	1.42	1.44	2025-06-13	↓	Bears Active
Kidney beans	White	GB	London	1.35	1.37	2025-06-13	↓	Bears Active

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Seasonal demand for mung beans rises with temperature, but total sales are 20%-30% below last year for most wholesalers.
• Port prices for green beans (mung) remain elevated; downward pressure has been seen recently as the market tests lower levels.
• Buyer confidence is low: most businesses restock conservatively, relying on smaller rolling inventories rather than aggressive replenishment strategies.
• Export prices in China remain higher than in competing origins (Brazil, UK), adding to price competition in international markets.
• Global inventories are stable, but accumulating stocks in China may become burdensome if consumption does not accelerate seasonally.

📊 Fundamentals

• China: Lower trade volumes, high inventories, and more cautious procurement dominate domestic dynamics.
• Brazil: Export-driven kidney bean trade remains steady but softens amid increased competition and moderate global demand.
• Europe: UK-origin beans show a mild decline in price as buyers seek cheaper alternatives and align with global trends.
• Speculation: Little speculative activity as fundamentals—rather than momentum or positioning—drive current prices.
• USDA/Official Reports: No significant changes in global bean area planted or projected inventory since last update; next crop report due in three weeks.

🌤️ Weather Outlook

• China: High heat persists across North and East China Plain, accelerating crop maturity but raising concerns about drought stress and bean quality if sustained. Scattered showers are expected in Northern production zones, but not enough for complete relief.
• Brazil: Seasonally dry, no significant weather threats for remaining harvest/early planting.
• UK: Normal rainfall, no major issues for broad or fava beans expected in the coming week.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Production (kt)	2023/24 Export (kt)	2023/24 Stocks (kt)	Comments
China	~1,360	~170	High	Stocks rising, demand lagging
Brazil	~800	~400	Stable	Consistent export pace
UK/EU	~340	~100	Steady	Soft demand, good harvest outlook

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Producers: Limit forward sales and monitor inventory closely due to the risk of further price softening if demand remains subdued.
• ⏳ Exporters: Consider hedging larger positions in case of further domestic price adjustments and global competition, especially from Brazil and the UK.
• 💡 Buyers: Continue cautious purchasing, focusing on just-in-time procurement until clearer signals of seasonal demand recovery.
• ⏰ Importers/Distributors: Diversify supplier base and monitor competing origins for value opportunities.

📆 Regional 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB)

Product	Origin	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Direction
Mung beans (organic)	CN-Beijing	1.51	1.50 – 1.51	Stable/soft
Kidney beans (large, white)	CN-Beijing	3.35	3.32 – 3.35	Mild Down
Kidney beans (dark red)	BR-Brasília	1.42	1.40 – 1.42	Soft
Beans broad (whole 12mm)	GB-London	1.30	1.29 – 1.30	Mild Down