Soya Market Update: Weather Risks & Global Demand Drive Volatility

The global soya market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as recent developments in crop conditions, expanding EU import volumes, and a shifting weather outlook test sentiment and add volatility. After a period of relative stability, prices are showing signs of renewed sensitivity to weather and fundamental supply and demand shocks. The latest USDA Crop Progress Report delivered a surprise: the proportion of US soybean acreage rated as good to excellent dropped by two percentage points to 66%, defying trader expectations for stability. At the same time, the European Commission released figures showing sharply higher EU soya imports for 2024/25 (up to 13.58 million tonnes from 12.65 million tonnes last year), underscoring Europe’s unrelenting appetite amid complex oilseed supply chains and weak local rapeseed output.

Derived soya products such as meal and oil are also showing robust import growth, further tightening international trade flows. On the futures side, CBOT contracts saw moderate declines, while Dalian prices in China softened in sympathy. Weather remains the wild card, as risks of dryness in North America and parts of Asia cast doubt on yield prospects for the coming critical pod-setting phase. Current FOB offers reflect a mixed picture: Chinese organic prices are stable, conventional premiums eased, and US and Ukrainian export values slipped. Against this backdrop, market participants are recalibrating their positioning, and speculative activity is trending more defensively.

📈 Soya Market Prices: Key Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT (US)	Jul 2025	1,071.25 US-Cent/bu	-2.75 US-Cent (-0.26%)	Neutral/Bearish
CBOT (US)	Nov 2025	1,067.00 US-Cent/bu	-0.75 US-Cent (-0.07%)	Stabilizing
DCE (CN)	Jul 2025	4,225.00 CNY/t	-12.00 CNY (-0.28%)	Slightly Bearish
DCE (CN)	Sep 2025	4,236.00 CNY/t	-10.00 CNY (-0.24%)	Neutral
FOB Offers (CN)	Organic	€0.75/kg	No change	Stable
FOB Offers (CN)	Conventional	€0.68/kg	-€0.02	Softening
FOB Offers (US)	No. 2	€0.32/kg	-€0.01	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Trends

• US Crop Ratings: USDA lowered ‘good/excellent’ ratings by 2 percentage points to 66%, hinting at crop stress and potential supply tightening if adverse weather persists.
• EU Imports: 2024/25 soya imports reached 13.58 Mt (vs. 12.65 Mt previous year), soya meal imports at 18.62 Mt (+26% y/y), highlighting strong demand from the feed and food sector; palm oil imports fell, signalling a shifting preference to soya oils.
• Rapeseed & Oilseed Competition: EU rapeseed imports also rose but trailed soya’s rate of growth. Tight rapeseed supplies are supportive of soya demand.
• Chinese Demand: Despite economic headwinds, China’s DCE contracts are drifting lower, reflecting adequate local stocks and cautious crush margins.
• Global Inventories: Traders remain attentive to US and South American old-crop balances, with Brazil’s record harvest partly offsetting US risks.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Report Drivers

• USDA Crop Progress Report – unexpected downtick in ratings, fueling weather premium speculation.
• European Commission import data reinforces robust demand growth for soya across food, feed, and crushing sectors in the EU.
• Global Macro: Speculative funds moderated exposure, reflecting mixed data and macro uncertainties.
• Market liquidity focuses on nearby CBOT contracts, while outer-months show less directional conviction.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• North America: Forecasts for the US Midwest signal a risk of dry spells alternating with heat, particularly affecting the core states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Soybeans are entering flowering—a critical juncture where stress can sharply limit yield potential.
• South America: Brazil’s late-harvested supplies underpin global stocks, but southern regions face dry pockets and frost threats.
• China: Summer monsoon trends are tracking near-average, but local dryness in northeast provinces could threaten crop stands if conditions worsen in the coming weeks.
• Conclusion: Weather remains the most important driver for market direction as the Northern Hemisphere approaches the peak reproductive growth period.

🌍 Production & Global Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)	Trend
USA	112.0	8.2	Down (due to lower ratings)
Brazil	156.0	28.7	Up (record crop)
Argentina	50.0	8.4	Up (improved weather)
EU	2.8	1.1	Stable
China	18.0	11.5	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Watch short-term weather developments for US and China crops; market reaction potential is high on further rating moves.
• Buyers should consider locking in forward coverage, especially for nearby needs, given volatility risk.
• Sellers are advised to scale back offers and monitor bids closely, as market softness could intensify if weather improves.
• Speculators: Trend-following strategies suggested, with stop-losses to guard against sudden weather-driven reversals.
• EU importers: Strong import pace will likely persist, keep monitoring for regional supply chain bottlenecks or logistics disruptions.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Direction
CBOT Jul 25	1,071.25 US-Cent/bu	1,060 – 1,085 US-Cent/bu	Sideways/Volatile
DCE Jul 25	4,225.00 CNY/t	4,200 – 4,250 CNY/t	Slight Downside
FOB CN, Organic	€0.75/kg	€0.75/kg	Stable
FOB US	€0.32/kg	€0.31 – 0.33/kg	Weak