Global Barley Market: Stability Amidst Supply Caution and Weather Watch

The barley market has entered a phase of remarkable price stability, with minimal volatility observed across major contract months on the SFE Futtergerste. Despite global agricultural uncertainties, barley prices have demonstrated strong resilience, especially with stable supply flows from key exporters like Ukraine. This tranquility, however, masks growing undercurrents—trade participants continue to monitor the impacts of geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region and evolving weather patterns across Europe and Australia, both of which are critical for global barley output. Stable prices on the commodity exchanges point to cautious optimism, but risk remains should weather shift unfavorably or logistical disruptions arise.

Recent price offers out of Ukraine—historically a swing player for both export supply and feed markets—have remained unchanged over the past several sessions, signaling equilibrium between available stocks and demand. With sustained demand from the livestock sector and importers in the Middle East and North Africa, any shift in production forecast or shipment capacity could quickly translate to price dynamics. As weather forecasts enter a crucial phase for the Northern Hemisphere, particularly with variable moisture conditions, market participants are well advised to keep a close eye on both crop development and policy headlines. Looking ahead, barley will likely continue to draw strength from steady demand and a cautiously balanced supply scenario, with a watchful eye on developing weather that could define the coming harvest.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Location	Contract/Type	Closing Price	Currency	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SFE Futtergerste	Jul 25	310.00	AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE Futtergerste	Sep 25	310.00	AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE Futtergerste	Nov 25	310.00	AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE Futtergerste	Jan 26, Mär 26, Mai 26, Jan 27, Jan 28	315.00	AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Feed, FCA	0.21 – 0.24	EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
Kyiv (UA)	Feed, FCA	0.23	EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukrainian Exports: Ukraine remains a primary supplier to global markets, especially for feed barley—aiding market stability despite underlying geopolitical risks.
• Livestock Sector Demand: Demand remains robust from feed and malting manufacturers, especially from the EU, China, and MENA.
• Global Inventory Levels: Stocks are considered comfortable, but with little buffer. Tightness could occur if harvests underperform in Europe or Australia.
• Speculative Positioning: Investment fund activity on barley remains limited, ensuring low speculative volatility compared to other cereals.
• Policy Monitoring: Close watch on Black Sea corridor and trade policies, any escalation could pressure prices higher.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA/FAS Latest Data: World barley production for 2024/25 is forecast to remain slightly below last year’s level, with stabilized acreage but increased weather risk in top growers.
• Major Exporters: EU, Russia, Ukraine, and Australia account for the majority of global barley exports. Export pace in the EU is steady; Australian new crop outlook is cautiously optimistic.
• Importing Countries: Saudi Arabia, China, and several North African states continue to dominate global import demand.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Remains within a normal range, though fragile should weather or logistics disrupt supply chains.

Country	2024/25 Production (est.)	2024/25 Exports (est.)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est.)
EU	51.0 Mt	8.2 Mt	6.0 Mt
Russia	20.6 Mt	5.5 Mt	1.4 Mt
Australia	10.8 Mt	6.2 Mt	1.1 Mt
Ukraine	5.6 Mt	2.6 Mt	0.8 Mt

☀️ Weather Outlook

• EU: Mild temperatures and adequate rainfall forecast for most of Western and Central Europe, supporting good yield prospects. Drier than usual conditions flagged for parts of Eastern Europe.
• Ukraine: Near-normal rainfall in June, but with some dryness in southern regions which may reduce potential yield.
• Australia: El Niño risk subsiding, but patchy precipitation could limit yield rebound in key production regions of New South Wales and Western Australia.
• Russia: Favorable temperature outlook, but dry pockets remain in the Volga region—a potential concern for late-planted barley.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚖️ Holders: Maintain forward sales—market stability supports steady pricing, but watch for weather surprises in July/August.
• ⏳ Buyers: Consider incremental purchases—current rates are advantageous, but risk premiums could reappear if dryness builds in key origins.
• 🔍 Exporters: Prioritize logistical planning for late summer—Black Sea corridor and port operations require ongoing vigilance.
• 🚨 Monitor speculative positions: While low, sharp outside moves in related cereal markets (wheat/corn) could spill over.
• 🌦️ Stay weather alert: Key yield periods (late June to August) will dictate harvest prospects, especially in Europe and Ukraine.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
SFE Futtergerste (AUD/t)	310–315	310–315	Stable
Ukraine FOB/FCA (EUR/kg)	0.21–0.24	0.21–0.24	Stable