The turmeric market is at a critical inflection point. After a mild price retreat in the past month, triggered by market liquidity restrictions and geopolitical uncertainty, the downside for turmeric prices now appears well contained. Behind this resilience lies a confluence of supportive fundamentals: crop yields have lagged, daily arrivals have sharply reduced, and global demand for turmeric—both whole and powder—remains robust. Farmers in key producing regions are withholding stock, expecting more lucrative selling rates, while nearly all old inventory has already cleared the pipelines.
The pronounced gap between projected supply (6.7 million bags) and expected annual demand (13 million bags) is set to be a decisive influence over prices in the coming weeks. On the ground, leading mandis like Nizamabad, Erode, and Warangal report falling inflows and diminishing clean, fresh stock availability, underscoring the increasingly competitive environment for buyers. Given these developments, the market consensus is for a rally of at least €0.22/kg or more before the next crop arrives, with prices forecast to reach €2.02–€2.16 per bundle. For traders, processors, and market watchers, this is an opportune moment to adopt a bullish stance as a substantial price uptick looks highly probable before new harvest pressure emerges.
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Turmeric whole
FOB 2.70 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric powder
FOB 3.50 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.72 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Turmeric Latest Market Snapshot
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) |
Previous Price (EUR/kg) |
Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole (Organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 2.70 | 2.72 | -0.02 | Firm/Bullish |
| Turmeric powder (Organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 3.50 | 3.53 | -0.03 | Stable-to-Bullish |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Salem, A) | India | Telangana | FOB | 1.72 | 1.72 | 0.00 | Firm |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Nizamabad, A) | India | Telangana | FOB | 1.63 | 1.68 | -0.05 | Tight/Upward Potential |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Fundamental Market Drivers
- Domestic + export demand for 2024/25 projected at 13 million bags versus an estimated total availability of just 6.7 million bags – the tightest market in years.
- Limited new arrivals: Nizamabad daily arrivals down to 7,500–7,600 bags (from 10,000–11,000), much lower in Erode and Warangal. Market supply is nearly all new crop, with 90% of old stocks already sold.
- Lower acreage: Farmers in major turmeric zones continue shifting to more lucrative crops, driving gradual multi-year acreage declines.
- Tightness in quality product: Clean, high-grade lots are scarce, adding further upside to select market segments.
📊 Fundamentals & Inventory: A Comparative View
| Marketing Year | Total Availability (Million Bags) |
New Crop | Carryover | Demand (Million Bags) |
Supply/Demand Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 8.4–8.5 | n/a | n/a | 12.5–13 | -4.0 to -4.5 |
| 2024/25 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 13 | -6.3 |
- Comparison to last report: The supply-demand gap has widened further as anticipated, with domestic usage and exports holding stable, but availability sharply contracting as a result of both weaker yields and old stock exhaustion.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Regional Crop Conditions
- Weather remains a critical variable: The onset of the southwest monsoon over southern India has been patchy, with only partial rainfall recovery after a warmer-than-average pre-monsoon period. Key belts like Telangana and Tamil Nadu are short of seasonal rainfall by 12–18% thus far, impacting crop establishment.
- Pod formation is reported lower in both Nizamabad and Sangli, indicating further potential yield loss if weather patterns do not normalize in the next two weeks.
- Short- to medium-term risk: Continued rainfall deficit and rising temperatures could further tighten yields and limit any downward pressure on prices—especially for high-quality lots.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Hold long positions: Market fundamentals remain robust; supply tightness offers limited downside for spot and near-term contracts.
- Accumulate on dips: Any brief speculative-driven weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity—demand outstrips available supply, and old stocks are exhausted.
- Monitor regional weather: Watch ongoing monsoon progress—further delays or rainfall shortfalls in India may accelerate the price rally.
- Watch quality differentials: Clean, premium grades are expected to command even stronger price premiums.
- Short-term target: Prices seen moving €0.20–€0.24/kg higher by late July; medium-term potential seen toward €2.16 per bundle.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Mandis)
| Mandi/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) |
3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) |
Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nizamabad | 1.63 | 1.65–1.67 | Upward/Firm |
| Erode | 1.72 | 1.74–1.76 | Upward/Firm |
| Sangli | 2.70 (whole) | 2.73–2.76 | Upward/Firm |