In the summer 2025 pumpkin seed kernel market, the prevailing mood is one of cautious optimism with a firm undertone. Trading across major Chinese origination regions remains subdued, as demand is mainly driven by export orders and steady buying from roasting enterprises. The key market development this season is the dramatic reduction in planting area and potential production, impacted by extreme weather events during sowing, even as crop stands appear healthy thus far. Coupled with the depletion of downstream inventories, these supply-side challenges have ignited bullish sentiment, and suppliers are quoting firmly at higher levels.
Nevertheless, transaction prices still depend on cargo quality and the willingness of sellers to offload stocks, reflecting a nuanced standoff between buyers and sellers. In the short term, market movement is expected to remain steady but tight, with industry participants closely monitoring the continuing tug-of-war over prices and deliveries, especially as new weather patterns unfold. The outcome for the rest of the season will largely hinge on real production figures as harvest approaches and the intensity of export demand.
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Pumpkin seed kernels
shine skin, grade aa
99.95%
FOB 2.70 €/kg
(from CN)
Pumpkin seed kernels
shine skin, grade aa
99.95%
FOB 2.60 €/kg
(from CN)
Pumpkin seed kernels
shine skin, grade a+
99.95%
FOB 1.64 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Latest Market Prices
| Product | Type | Purity | Organic | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (€/kg) | Prev. Price | Change W/W | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumpkin seed kernels | Shine Skin, AA | 99.95% | Yes | CN | Beijing | FOB | 2.70 | 2.67 | +0.03 | 17-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seed kernels | Shine Skin, AA | 99.95% | No | CN | Beijing | FOB | 2.60 | 2.58 | +0.02 | 17-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seed kernels | Shine Skin, A+ | 99.95% | No | CN | Beijing | FOB | 1.64 | 1.61 | +0.03 | 17-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seed kernels | GWS, AA | 99.95% | No | CN | Beijing | FOB | 2.43 | 2.41 | +0.02 | 17-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seed kernels | GWS, A | 99.95% | No | CN | Beijing | FOB | 2.23 | 2.23 | 0.00 | 17-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seeds kernels | GWS, AA | 99.95% | No | CN | Dalian | FOB | 3.34 | 3.34 | 0.00 | 13-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seeds kernels | GWS, A | 99.95% | No | CN | Dalian | FOB | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0.00 | 13-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seeds kernels | Shine Skin, AA | 99.95% | No | CN | Dalian | FOB | 3.46 | 3.46 | 0.00 | 13-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seeds kernels | Shine Skin, A | 99.95% | No | CN | Dalian | FOB | 2.77 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 13-Jun-2025 |
| Pumpkin seed kernels | Shine Skin, A | 99.98% | No | CN | Hamburg (DE) | FCA | 1.64 | 2.17 | -0.53 | 11-Jun-2025 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Major supply area: China remains the central producer and supplier in the global pumpkin seed market, with exports concentrated out of Beijing and Dalian.
- Planted Area & Crop Outlook: All key growing areas in China have completed sowing. Crop development is considered good, but sharply down in acreage and likely total output due to adverse weather during initial growth phases.
- Demand Side: Export demand, especially from Europe and North America, is the primary market driver. Domestic procurement is steady, focused on the roasting/snacking industries.
- Inventory & Procurement: Inventory drawdown among major clients reinforces tightness. However, buyers show resistance to high offers, negotiating hard for quality premiums.
📊 Fundamentals
- Stocks: Downstream inventories are being consumed, further amplifying concerns over short supply before the new harvest arrives.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders are holding out for higher prices, with very limited sell pressure apparent at current levels.
- Sentiment: Strongly bullish among Chinese merchants, but practical buying is highly selective and depends on specific grade and traceability.
- Comparison to Previous Report: Sentiment has strengthened, with inventory depletion accelerating and little relief forecast from the supply side owing to confirmed acreage reduction. Differences from last report: stronger bullishness, clearer supply-side risk, and higher headline prices.
☁️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- China key regions: Initial stages marked by several extreme heat and rain incidents; current crop conditions are healthy where stands survived, but absolute planted areas are confirmed down from prior years.
- 3-Day Forecast (Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang): Expect mixed weather—isolated storms and warmer highs; continued weather risks could threaten late replanting and early pod fill stages, keeping yield projections volatile.
- Global Outlook: Dryness in Eastern Europe and parts of the US Midwest has been noted, but the majority of global seed pumpkin production remains China-centric for the food/ingredient segment.
🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est, t) | 2025 Forecast (t) | Major Export Markets | Inventory Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~750,000 | 640,000-680,000 | EU, US, Middle East | Declining |
| Austira, E. Europe | 40,000 | n/a | EU domestic, speciality | Stable |
| US/Mexico | n/a | n/a | US, Canada | Stable |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📈 Upside bias: With acreage losses confirmed and inventories tightening, a constructive to bullish market tone remains warranted in the near-term.
- 🔎 Quality premium: Buyers should target proven origin/grade lots, as increased variance in seed quality is expected due to weather effects.
- ⚖️ Risk management: Sellers should remain patient; large-volume buyers may need to book forward now, but expect pushback over sharply higher ask prices.
- ⏳ Watch for volatility: Further supply-side disruptions or a late recovery in planted area will be major price drivers into July/Aug, so dynamic adjustment is recommended.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location/Exchange | Grade | Current (€) | 3-Day Forecast (€) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing FOB | Shine Skin AA | 2.70 | 2.72 – 2.74 | ↑ |
| Beijing FOB | Shine Skin, non-organic | 2.60 | 2.62 – 2.65 | ↑ |
| Dalian FOB | GWS AA | 3.34 | 3.34 – 3.36 | → / ↑ |