Rice Market Eyes Japan: Tight Supply, Aging Farms & New Trade Potential

The global rice market is at a pivotal moment as Japan—long regarded as a steadfastly self-sufficient and culturally protective market—faces its most acute rice shortage and price surge in decades. With domestic Japonica rice production declining sharply due to an aging farmer population, shrinking farmland, and an unprecedented wave of tourist-driven demand, Japan has been compelled to import substantial volumes of rice. The crisis reached its peak in April–May 2025 when retail prices more than doubled to 7.00 USD per kg, prompting government intervention, stockpile releases, and rushes on supermarket supplies. The political and social fallout sparked an international search for reliable suppliers.

This sudden opening shines a spotlight on India, the world’s largest rice exporter, with its diverse portfolio ranging from Basmati to specialty sticky rices such as Joha or Chokuwa. With export restrictions on non-Basmati varieties lifted, India stands poised to fill a crucial gap in Japan—and potentially reshape regional trade. However, export competition is fierce as many nations eye Japan’s rapidly growing import needs. Meanwhile, Vietnam and Thailand remain key price-setters, and weather risks, particularly heatwaves and flooding, loom over all Asian producers. In the months ahead, delicate supply-demand dynamics, policy maneuvers, and climatic conditions will drive price direction and trade flows in rice—a staple that is facing its most turbulent market year in decades.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Red	VN	Hanoi	0.91	0.91	2025-06-21	Neutral
Paper dried	VN	Hanoi	1.99	1.99	2025-06-21	Neutral
Long, white, 5%	VN	Hanoi	0.62	0.62	2025-06-21	Neutral
Japonica	VN	Hanoi	0.74	0.74	2025-06-21	Neutral
Basmati (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	1.95	1.95	2025-06-21	Neutral
White, Non-Basmati (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	1.64	1.64	2025-06-21	Neutral
All Golden Sella	IN	New Delhi	1.08	1.08	2025-06-21	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Japan: Production at 6.7 million tonnes in 2024—nearly half of 1970s levels; consumption exceeded expectations due to a 36 million tourist boom and panic buying. Imports, usually ~770,000 tonnes (duty-free under WTO), set to rise as government seeks to stabilize the domestic market and ease crises. Price spike to 7.00 USD/kg sparked market interventions and retail rationing.
• India: Export ban on non-Basmati lifted. Large pools of sticky rice like Joha potentially meeting Japanese culinary preferences. Domestic demand also climbs as East Asian cuisine grows in popularity.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Export pricing stable. Vietnam’s top grades (long grain, Japonica, red) steady at 0.62–0.91 EUR/kg (FOB). Thailand’s prices generally serve as global reference.
• Other suppliers: US, South Korea, Taiwan continue to supply Japan, but volumes are capped by both tariffs and preferences for texture and freshness. China and Australia supply smaller shares. Global tightness means all suppliers have negotiation leverage.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production Trends: Global output for 2024 is flat to marginally up. Japan’s 6.7M tonnes is a minor recovery over 2023 but well below long-term trend.
• Stockpiles: Japanese government released 1/3 of stockpiles in 2025 crisis; stocks strained but stabilized after direct-to-retail sales. World inventories are below five-year average due to Asian climate volatility and India’s prior export bans.
• Policy: Japan may ease import tariffs, especially for sticky rice. Political pressure for resilient supply chains is high after resignation of agriculture minister. India’s push to promote specialty rices in Asian markets is a bullish signal for farmers and exporters alike.
• Speculative Positioning: Dormant, as rice is less traded on major exchanges versus wheat/corn; physical trade and OTC are key price-setters.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon rains in June 2025 are on track, but parts of Northeast may face localized flooding, challenging sticky rice cultivation. Watch for late-season heat that could affect yields in August.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Mekong Delta reported average rainfall, no major drought. Thai plains remain vulnerable to off-season heat spikes projected for late July.
• Japan: Outlook stable for July sowing, but labor shortages persist and possible typhoon activity by August could disrupt harvests.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks (2024)

Country	Production (million tonnes)	Stock Change YoY	Import/Export
India	124.0	-2%	Export >17M
China	146.0	0%	Minimal net trade
Thailand	20.5	+3%	Export 8.8M
Vietnam	28.0	+1%	Export 7.7M
Japan	6.7	-3%	Import 1M+
US	6.0	-8%	Export ~2.8M

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Japanese import policy changes: Tariff easing could shift demand rapidly to India and Vietnam, especially sticky rice.
• Indian exporters: Fast-track compliance with Japanese quality standards for sticky rice and diversify product portfolio.
• Procure forward: With prices flat but upside risks (weather, policy), end-users should lock in Q3–Q4 needs early.
• Watch weather headlines: Adverse monsoons or Asian typhoons would quickly tighten world supply, boosting prices.
• Retailers in Japan: Expect buying pressure to return if weather or politics limit public stockpile releases again.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market/Origin	Current Price (€/kg FOB)	Forecast Price (€/kg FOB)	Forecast Sentiment
VN – Long, white, 5%	0.62	0.63	Slightly Bullish
VN – Japonica	0.74	0.75	Slightly Bullish
IN – White, non Basmati (Organic)	1.64	1.65	Neutral
IN – Basmati (Organic)	1.95	1.96	Neutral