Morocco Grain Market Outlook 2025/26

Morocco Grain Market Outlook 2025/26

Late Rains Rescue Crop, But Import Reliance Persists

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🧾 Summary

• Weather recovery: Timely rainfall in March–April 2025 helped reverse early drought damage, leading to a 40% year-on-year increase in wheat and barley output.
• Total grain production (wheat + barley) is forecast at 4.4 MMT, still below historical averages.
• The Moroccan government maintains zero wheat import duties and continues subsidies through December 31, 2025.

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🌾 2025/26 Production Forecast (in million metric tons)

Crop	2024/25 (est.)	2025/26 (forecast)
Common wheat	~1.5–2.0	2.5
Durum wheat	~1.0	1.0
Barley	~0.6–0.7	0.95
Total	~3.1	4.4

The NDVI chart on page 2 shows improved vegetation activity starting in mid-March due to rainfall.

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🚢 Wheat Import Trends (June–March YTD Comparison)

Country	2023/24	2024/25	Change
EU-27	3.98 M	2.47 M	−38%
Canada	0.56 M	0.83 M	+47%
Russia	0.34 M	1.08 M	+214%
Ukraine	0.15 M	0.23 M	+54%
U.S.	0.03 M	0.016 M	−45%
Total	5.11 M	4.70 M	−8%

 

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📦 Wheat Supply & Use (2025/26 Forecast)

Indicator	Value
Domestic use (FSI + feed)	9.6 MMT
Imports (MY)	6.7 MMT
Ending stocks	1.33 MMT
Area harvested	2.2 M ha
Yield	1.59 t/ha

 

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🌾 Barley Outlook

• Expected production: 0.95 MMT (+44% %)
• Imports still needed: ~0.9 MMT
• Barley imports (Jul–Mar) down −37% YoY, mostly from the EU
• Critical for livestock feed, especially in drought years

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🏛️ Policy Highlights

• Wheat import duties remain at 0% for the 2025 harvest window (May–July).
• Subsidies extended through December 2025 to support strategic food supply.
• A national strategic stock program is under development to cover 6 months of wheat consumption, coordinated with the FNCL (National Federation of Cereals & Legumes).

Source: USDA