The cumin market in mid-2025 finds itself at a complex crossroads: While India, the world’s largest producer and exporter, has posted record-breaking export figures, weak domestic and overseas demand has prevented these gains from translating into price strength. As the retail season winds down, both domestic processors and international buyers have scaled back purchases. Despite this, cumin exports from India soared by 39.63% year-on-year to 212,502 tonnes during April-March 2025, a jump from the previous year’s 152,189 tonnes. Paradoxically, new export orders remain scarce, and on the import side, India’s arrivals plummeted over 93%, reflecting ample local availability.
Farmer-held stocks stand at an estimated 20 lakh bags, but only 3-4 lakh could move by season’s end; this leaves a hefty 16 lakh bags expected to carry forward, which is likely to fuel further downward pressure on prices in the coming months. Meanwhile, geopolitical issues in rival supply countries—Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan—have not been fully leveraged as a competitive edge due to tepid overseas demand. With weather conditions generally favorable across India’s key growing areas and comfortable supply in the pipeline, the cumin market is firmly in the hands of buyers for now. Recent consistency in prices also hints at a reluctant market, poised for further softness unless new demand emerges or adverse weather disrupts prospects.
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Cumin seeds
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FOB 4.52 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Type/Purity | Organic | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | 1W Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin seeds | India | New Delhi | whole, grade – A | Yes | FOB | 5.28 | 0% | Weak |
| Cumin seeds | India | Gujarat – Unjha | 98% | No | FOB | 2.48 | 0% | Weak |
| Cumin powder | India | New Delhi | grade – A | Yes | FOB | 4.52 | 0% | Weak |
| Cumin seeds | India | New Delhi | 99% | No | FOB | 2.50 | 0% | Weak |
| Cumin seeds | Egypt | Cairo | 99.9% | No | FOB | 4.95 | -0.4% | Steady |
| Cumin seed | Syria | Dordrecht (NL) | – | No | FCA | 4.04 | 0% | Steady |
| Cumin seeds | Iran | Tehran | green, premium | No | FOB | 5.55 | +3.2% | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India’s April–March 2025 cumin exports up 39.63% y/y (212,502 tonnes).
- Low new export orders despite strong shipments.
- Domestic demand tepid as retail season ends; wholesalers and processors reducing purchases.
- Estimated 20 lakh bags in farmers’ hands, only 3–4 lakh bags expected to trade this season—implying >16 lakh bags carry forward.
- India’s cumin imports down over 93%, confirming ample domestic supply.
- High carry-forward stocks remain a downward risk for prices.
- Geopolitical constraints in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan limit rival supply but do not offset low demand for Indian cumin.
📊 Fundamentals
- Stocks: 16 lakh carry-forward bags projected—likely to keep market oversupplied into Q3/Q4 2025.
- Global production:
- India: Dominates world production and exports in 2025 (estimate: ~70% of global output).
- Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan: Lower output or export restrictions due to weather or political factors.
- Iran: Some price firmness in premium grades possibly due to quality or logistics.
- Egypt: Market stable, minimal price movement; reliable but secondary supplier.
- Speculative Positioning: Trader sentiment remains cautious; minimal speculative buying due to high stocks and weak demand signals.
- Inventories: India’s trade and on-farm inventories ample; further pressure if new demand doesn’t improve.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Weather conditions in India’s Rajasthan & Gujarat—key cumin-growing regions—have been mostly favorable with adequate rainfall and no significant heat stress noted since late May.
- Forecasts for the remainder of June signal typical pre-monsoon weather; risk of adverse events is low in near term.
- Limited risk of supply-side shocks; crop yields expected to remain robust for the current season.
- Monitor: Any late monsoon anomalies could affect late-sown areas but overall impact likely minimal given current stock buffers.
🌐 Global Supply & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (kt) | Exportable Surplus (kt) | Market Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~290–300 | 200+ | Oversupplied |
| Iran | 12 | 5 | Stable |
| Egypt | 10 | 6 | Stable |
| Syria | 5 | 2 | Restricted |
| Turkey | 4 | 2 | Restricted |
| Afghanistan | 3 | 1 | Restricted |
📆 Trading Outlook
- 🔽 Sellers: Advance sales recommended to reduce position before monsoon—focus on quick turnover due to risk of further price softness.
- 🔽 Traders/Exporters: Seek short futures/hedges or keep spot positions limited; avoid accumulation as stocks are plentiful and new export demand remains weak.
- ⏸️ Buyers (Domestic/Overseas): Exercise patience; prices may weaken further post-monsoon stock assessments.
- ⚠️ Monitor: Weather in key Indian states (Gujarat, Rajasthan); any disruption could alter the bearish tone.
🗓️ 3-day Price Forecast
- India (Gujarat/Unjha, New Delhi, FOB): EUR 2.48-2.50/kg (Stable/weak bias)
- Egypt (Cairo, FOB): EUR 4.90-4.95/kg (Firm/steady)
- Iran (Tehran, FOB): EUR 5.50-5.60/kg (Slight upward potential due to premium grades)