Corn Market Turns Cautious as US Crop Condition Dips and Euro Prices Hold Steady

The global corn market faces a cautiously shifting mood this week, as fresh U.S. crop condition data introduces a measure of uncertainty for the upcoming harvest. The National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) revealed that, for the first time this year, the share of U.S. corn in good or excellent condition dropped to 70%—2 percentage points lower than the previous week. This fading vigor, although leaving crops in relatively better shape than last year, introduces new headwinds just as markets had priced in strong supply expectations. Besides, mixed weather patterns across the Midwest and ongoing concerns over excessive rainfall in certain key U.S. regions threaten to undermine yield prospects if conditions persist.

European corn prices, meanwhile, remained generally stable this week, reflecting both cautious optimism on harvest potential and a wait-and-see approach among market participants. On the export front, competitive Ukrainian and French offers continue to anchor global pricing, with no significant week-on-week changes. Momentum is expected to be influenced in the coming days by updated weather outlooks, speculative activity, and the next USDA acreage and inventory reports. Combined, these factors set the stage for potential price volatility into the close of June and the start of July.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Delivery Term	Last Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date
Corn (Yellow Feed Grade)	UA (Odesa)	FCA	0.25	0.25	0%	2025-06-20
Popcorn	BR (Dordrecht)	FCA	0.74	0.74	0%	2025-06-20
Popcorn (expansion 40/42)	AR (Buenos Aires)	FOB	0.82	0.83	-1.2%	2025-06-20
Corn (Yellow)	FR (Paris)	FOB	0.26	0.27	-3.7%	2025-06-20
Corn (Starch, Organic)	IN (New Delhi)	FOB	1.97	2.00	-1.5%	2025-06-20
Corn	UA (Odesa)	FOB	0.21	0.21	0%	2025-06-20

🌍 Supply & Demand

• U.S. Crop Health: Share of U.S. corn rated good/excellent fell from 72% to 70%. However, this is still above last year’s levels, indicating resilience but growing vulnerability.
• European Situations: Stable acreage, but uncertainty around summer weather may affect Southern and Eastern European yields.
• Black Sea Activity: Ukraine remains price-competitive; stable output supports global supply but export logistics at ports remain under scrutiny.
• China Demand: Robust Chinese purchasing continues, but rising inventories and record harvest expectations may temper import demand in Q3/Q4 2025.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Data: Last WASDE report maintained global corn ending stocks at comfortable levels, though global weather risks are rising.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money held a somewhat neutral to mildly bullish position coming into this week, with some short covering occurring after the crop downgrade.
• Inventories: Global corn stocks-to-use ratio remains adequate by historic standards, though any further U.S. crop deterioration could prove market-moving.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Midwest: Forecasts show a mix of moderate rains and above-average temperatures over the next week. Excess rainfall in parts of Illinois and Indiana could challenge pollination and root health. Drier spells in Nebraska and Iowa may stress crops if extended.
• Europe: Central and Eastern Europe expect normal to slightly above-average temperatures, with isolated showers—favorable for maturing crops, though heat waves in July pose a looming risk.
• Ukraine: Conditions are seasonal; no major adverse weather reported. Watch for dryness trends in July-August.

🌐 Production & Stocks: Key Countries

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	2024/25 Exports (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	390	50	53
China	290	0.5	211
Brazil	120	50	11
Ukraine	35	24	2
EU	65	4	6

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider incremental forward sales, especially if U.S. weather turns more adverse—use option strategies to retain upside potential.
• Buyers: Take advantage of stable prices and consider covering Q3 needs; monitor U.S. and EU weather updates closely before extending coverage.
• Traders/Investors: Watch for momentum shifts if further U.S. crop downgrades emerge; technical support seen near recent lows, with market very sensitive to incoming weather data.
• Risk: Main short-term risk is persistent adverse U.S. weather; watch for swing in speculative flows that could trigger short-covering rallies.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast (€/kg)	Trend
Odesa (UA, FCA)	0.25	0.25 – 0.26	Stable/Up
Paris (FR, FOB)	0.26	0.26	Stable
Buenos Aires (AR, FOB, Popcorn)	0.82	0.82	Stable

Summary: After a long period of stability, the first sign of U.S. crop stress could drive short-term volatility. Closely monitor weather and upcoming USDA reports for next moves.