Despite an initial softening in turmeric prices, the global market remains highly attentive to underlying supply risks and shifting fundamental dynamics in the 2024–25 cycle. Recent sessions saw prices easing as both domestic and export demand have stayed lukewarm, even against a backdrop of considerably higher daily arrivals compared to the same period last year. Nevertheless, concerns over declining crop prospects are capping further downside, as weather disruptions in India threaten regional yields. A 10 percent expansion in planted turmeric acreage underscores a tactical shift by farmers away from less profitable crops.
Yet, a series of unseasonal rains in major producing belts—particularly Nanded—are now causing rhizome rot and smaller rhizome size, leading to a downward revision in yield projections by 10–15 percent across multiple key regions. As trading activity keeps momentum, supported by quality premiums for new crop arrivals and government procurement in certain states, the market faces a complex interplay of rising acreage and declining per-hectare yields. On the export front, India records an 8.83 percent year-on-year uptick in shipments, providing some support but not enough to drive a meaningful rally in prices given modest global consumption. Weather irregularities and shifting fundamentals are poised to shape the turmeric market direction in the months ahead, warranting vigilant market positioning from traders and industry participants.
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Turmeric whole
FOB 2.70 €/kg
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Turmeric powder
FOB 3.50 €/kg
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Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.72 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Turmeric Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Grade/Type | Delivery | Last Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole | India | New Delhi | Organic | FOB | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0% | Neutral |
| Turmeric powder | India | New Delhi | Organic | FOB | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0% | Neutral |
| Turmeric dried (finger Salem, grade A) | India | Telangana | Conventional | FOB | 1.72 | 1.72 | 0% | Soft |
| Turmeric dried (finger Nizamabad, grade A) | India | Telangana | Conventional | FOB | 1.63 | 1.63 | 0% | Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Supply: Daily arrivals rose to 13,660 quintals (vs 11,940 qtls last year), a 14% YoY increase, reflecting expanded acreage and early harvest marketing.
- Acreage: 2024–25 area under turmeric stands at 330,000 hectares (+10% YoY), driven by farmer shift from less profitable crops.
- Yield Concerns: Unseasonal rainfall in major belts, particularly Nanded, has led to rhizome rot and size reduction. Estimated yield cut of 10–15% YoY offsets part of acreage gains.
- Demand: Domestic and export demand remain modest. Active trading in Duggirala as new crop fetches premium due to higher quality; nearly 50% of new arrivals already sold.
- Government Procurement: Supportive buying in Himachal Pradesh stabilizes regional sentiment.
- Exports: April–March 2025 turmeric exports up 8.83% YoY, yet international demand growth is moderate, curbing price upside.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Production Potential: While sown area has increased, weather-hit yields reduce overall output potential—market bracing for supply tightness later in season.
- Price Action: Market remains soft but downside risk limited. Premiums persist for superior, freshly harvested crop—especially in Duggirala.
- Speculative Activity: Market largely driven by spot demand and quality differentiation rather than aggressive speculative positioning.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Nanded & Central Maharashtra: Forecast indicates scattered showers over the next three days, raising continued risk of fungal disease and rhizome rot. Dry spells are needed for crop recovery.
- Telangana & Andhra Pradesh: Fluctuating humidity and occasional rainfall; risk of persistent soil moisture hindering full recovery of undermatured fields.
Short-term weather challenges continue adding uncertainty to realized yields, supporting a floor in prices despite lackluster demand.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: Remains the world’s dominant producer and exporter. Expanded acreage only partly offsets weather-hit harvest; inventories are expected to tighten into Q3 2025.
- Key Importers: Middle East, US, Europe maintain steady but unspectacular import volumes. International buyers displaying wait-and-see approach due to global inventory levels and ongoing output uncertainty.
- Other Producers: Limited impact from secondary origins (e.g., Myanmar, Indonesia) on global pricing due to scale and quality differential.
📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Expect rangebound trade near current levels (EUR 1.60–3.50/kg FOB) in the immediate term, as weak demand tempers gains but production worries limit losses.
- Watch for any escalation in weather disturbances for upward volatility risk, especially if reported yield losses rise above 15%.
- Quality differentiation gaining clarity: Premiums for new crop, high-grade lots likely to persist. Lower grades may see additional price pressure if demand stays slow.
- Exporters advised to monitor shipment windows closely; seek forward contracts to hedge against potential late-season rallies.
- Importers can adopt wait-and-watch strategy, targeting spot buys at dips as seasonal arrivals and stock pressure could persist into mid-Q3 2025.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Forecast Price Range (€/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Turmeric Whole, Powder | 2.65 – 2.80 | Steady |
| Telangana (FOB) | Dried, Grade A | 1.60 – 1.75 | Slightly Soft |
| Andhra Pradesh (Local Markets) | Fresh Crop | Premium of +3–6% to old crop | Firm |
