Corn Market Faces Tepid Demand as Algeria Plays Price Games—Traders Await Weather Clues

The global corn market is currently navigating a period of tepid demand amid soft pricing and cautious buying activity, particularly from major importers such as Algeria. European traders report that the Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new tender for up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn following a previous tender for 244,000 tons, which closed on June 19 with limited actual purchases. These repeated market checks—tendering without significant buying—reflect both Algeria’s strategic procurement approach and underlying uncertainty over true demand in North Africa. This pattern is echoed by most trading houses, who note that recent Algerian corn tenders act more as a barometer for market price discovery than imminent bulk procurement.

Meanwhile, market prices at key European and Black Sea ports have remained stable over the past week, reflecting the absence of aggressive new buying and firming up sentiment that global stocks remain adequate for the near-term. Weather continues to be a core watch factor, with focus turning to U.S. Midwest and Black Sea region forecasts as planting nears completion and early crop development stages are revealed. Supply chain participants—from farmers to traders and processors—are keenly watching for any weather volatility that could shake up the otherwise steady pricing environment. Overall, while prices have stabilized after recent minor declines, the market sits in a delicate balance between the potential for a weather-driven shift and the realities of lackluster forward demand, especially from traditionally large importers.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Corn (yellow feed grade, 14.5% max)	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	0.0	Stable
Corn (yellow)	France	Paris	FOB	0.26	0.27	-3.7	Soft
Corn (starch, organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.97	2.00	-1.5	Weak
Corn	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.21	0.21	0.0	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Algerian Buying: Multiple tenders signal price discovery mode, not urgent spot buying—likely to keep near-term demand subdued.
• Import Competition: Black Sea and South American corn continues to offer competitive rates, pressuring European quotes.
• Adequate Global Inventories: No significant draw-downs in stocks, keeping buying appetite low and buyers in ‘wait-and-see’ mode.
• Speculative Positioning: Large speculative traders remain neutral, awaiting more compelling signals from weather or macroeconomic shifts.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE places 2024/25 global corn ending stocks at comfortable levels with robust South American output and US acreage near expectations.
• Crop Acreage: Planted acreage in the US slightly above the five-year average; June planting progress advanced by recent favorable weather.
• Global Inventories: Major exporters (US, Brazil, Ukraine) maintain healthy stockpiles; China, as major importer, reported stable inventory levels.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Early summer forecasts show warm temperatures and scattered rainfall—favorable for corn pollination but with some pockets of dryness in western areas.
• Black Sea Region: Near-normal rainfall, though southern Russia and Ukraine face possible dryness over the next 7 days.
• South America: Post-harvest period for Brazil; few supply-side risks in the short term.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mln tons)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mln tons)	Notes
USA	380	47	Favorable weather and acreage
Brazil	120	10	Strong main/second crop yields
Ukraine	30	4	Solid despite logistics risks
China	292	210	World’s largest stocks, mostly domestic
EU	63	6	Steady after recovery from past droughts

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect rangebound prices in the near term amid steady global balance and slow importer buying.
• Monitor weather patterns in the Black Sea and US Midwest closely for any yield-impacting developments.
• Watch importer moves—especially Algeria; a surprise large purchase could spur a short-term rally.
• Opportunities for buyers to secure forward volumes at historically low basis levels.
• Exporters should keep flexible offers, as competition from South America and Ukraine remains intense.
• Market remains more reactive to crop/weather headlines than actual buying flows—trade nimbly.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast: Key Exchanges

Exchange/Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Paris FOB	0.26	0.25 – 0.27	Soft/Sideways
Odesa FCA	0.25	0.24 – 0.26	Stable
Odesa FOB	0.21	0.20 – 0.22	Stable